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Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-01 Xiaoyue Xi , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Russell J. Bowater , Ludmila E. Guzmán-Pantoja

As for other latent-variable problems, exact Bayesian analysis is typically not practicable for mixture problems and approximate methods have been developed. Variational Bayes tends to produce approximate posterior distributions for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Nils Lid Hjort , Mike Titterington

Recently, Halpern and Leung suggested representing uncertainty by a weighted set of probability measures, and suggested a way of making decisions based on this representation of uncertainty: maximizing weighted regret. Their paper does not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-09-06 Joseph Y. Halpern

The forensic science community has increasingly sought quantitative methods for conveying the weight of evidence. Experts from many forensic laboratories summarize their findings in terms of a likelihood ratio. Several proponents of this…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-28 Steven P. Lund , Hari K. Iyer

The notion of confidence distributions is applied to inference about the parameter in a simple autoregressive model, allowing the parameter to take the value one. This makes it possible to compare to asymptotic approximations in both the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-28 Rolf Larsson

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Hagai Attias

One of the most important queries in knowledge compilation is weighted model counting (WMC), which has been applied to probabilistic inference on various models, such as Bayesian networks. In practical situations on inference tasks, the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Kengo Nakamura , Masaaki Nishino , Norihito Yasuda

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens

In Bayesian optimization, accounting for the importance of the output relative to the input is a crucial yet challenging exercise, as it can considerably improve the final result but often involves inaccurate and cumbersome entropy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-30 Antoine Blanchard , Themistoklis Sapsis

Imputing missing values is an important preprocessing step in data analysis, but the literature offers little guidance on how to choose between different imputation models. This letter suggests adopting the imputation model that generates a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-13 Moritz Marbach

The linear regression models are widely used statistical techniques in numerous practical applications. The standard regression model requires several assumptions about the regres- sors and the error term. The regression parameters are…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-23 P. Vellaisamy

In this paper, we study the linear transformation model in the most general setup. This model includes many important and popular models in statistics and econometrics as special cases. Although it has been studied for many years, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-26 Tao Yu , Pengfei Li , Baojiang Chen , Ao Yuan , Jing Qin

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or health policy with observational data can be challenging due to an imbalance of and a lack of overlap between treated and control covariate distributions. In the presence of limited overlap,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Martha Barnard , Jared D. Huling , Julian Wolfson

If the prior probability distributions of all possible hypothetical true means and all possible observed means of a continuous variable are conditional on the universal set of all numbers (i.e., before the nature of a study is known and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-05 Huw Llewelyn

In mixture model-based clustering applications, it is common to fit several models from a family and report clustering results from only the `best' one. In such circumstances, selection of this best model is achieved using a model selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-09 Yuhong Wei , Paul D. McNicholas

Bayesian models of legal arguments generally aim to produce a single integrated model, combining each of the legal arguments under consideration. This combined approach implicitly assumes that variables and their relationships can be…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-31 Martin Neil , Norman Fenton , David Lagnado , Richard D. Gill

The likelihood function plays a pivotal role in statistical inference; it is adaptable to a wide range of models and the resultant estimators are known to have good properties. However, these results hinge on correct specification of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-15 Adam Jaeger , Nicole Lazar

Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Kenton K. Yee

We study the empirical likelihood approach to construct confidence intervals for the optimal value and the optimality gap of a given solution, henceforth quantify the statistical uncertainty of sample average approximation, for optimization…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Henry Lam , Enlu Zhou