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Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2016-09-01 G. D'Agostini

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-15 Lizhen Xu , Radu V. Craiu , Lei Sun

We consider the problem of integrating a small probability sample (ps) and a non-probability sample (nps). By definition, for the nps, there are no survey weights, but for the ps, there are survey weights. The key issue is that the nps,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-17 Balgobin Nandram , JNK Rao

The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-08-17 André Chalom , Paulo Inácio de Knegt López de Prado

In recent years, empirical Bayesian (EB) inference has become an attractive approach for estimation in parametric models arising in a variety of real-life problems, especially in complex and high-dimensional scientific applications.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-01 Hien D Nguyen , Mayetri Gupta

Comparison data arises in many important contexts, e.g. shopping, web clicks, or sports competitions. Typically we are given a dataset of comparisons and wish to train a model to make predictions about the outcome of unseen comparisons. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-25 Stephen Ragain , Alexander Peysakhovich , Johan Ugander

Averaging predictions from multiple competing inferential models frequently outperforms predictions from any single model, providing that models are optimally weighted to maximize predictive performance. This is particularly the case in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-02 Nathaniel Haines , Conor Goold

We endeavour to estimate numerous multi-dimensional means of various probability distributions on a common space based on independent samples. Our approach involves forming estimators through convex combinations of empirical means derived…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Gilles Blanchard , Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Hannah Marienwald

Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-01 Georgios Karagiannis , Bledar A. Konomi , Guang Lin

Model averaging methods have become an increasingly popular tool for improving predictions and dealing with model uncertainty, especially in Bayesian settings. Recently, frequentist model averaging methods such as information theoretic and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-18 Kevin Huynh

Bayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in the 1980s, no systematic and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Maren Mahsereci , Toni Karvonen

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Leonardo Cella , Emily C. Hector

This paper develops some objective priors for certain parameters of the bivariate normal distribution. The parameters considered are the regression coefficient, the generalized variance, and the ratio of the conditional variance of one…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Malay Ghosh , Upasana Santra , Dalho Kim

In complex survey data, each sampled observation has assigned a sampling weight, indicating the number of units that it represents in the population. Whether sampling weights should or not be considered in the estimation process of model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Amaia Iparragirre , Irantzu Barrio , Jorge Aramendi , Inmaculada Arostegui

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-19 M. González , C. Minuesa , I. del Puerto , A. N. Vidyashankar

Machine learning models trained on real-world data may inadvertently make biased predictions that negatively impact marginalized communities. Reweighting, which assigns a weight to each data point used during model training, can mitigate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Anil K. Saini , Jose Guadalupe Hernandez , Emily F. Wong , Debanshi Misra , Tiffani J. Bright , Jason H. Moore

Approximate Bayesian computing is a powerful likelihood-free method that has grown increasingly popular since early applications in population genetics. However, complications arise in the theoretical justification for Bayesian inference…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-03 Suzanne Thornton , Wentao Li , Min-ge Xie

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-01 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-08-01 Qingping Zhou , Wenqing Liu , Jinglai Li , Youssef M. Marzouk