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Delattre et al. (2013) considered a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in a random effects setup. Under the independent and identical (iid) situation, and assuming normal distribution of the random effects, they established…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Trisha Maitra , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Bayesian methods have proven themselves to be successful across a wide range of scientific problems and have many well-documented advantages over competing methods. However, these methods run into difficulties for two major and prevalent…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-29 John R. Lewis , Steven N. MacEachern , Yoonkyung Lee

Batch effects represent a major confounder in genomic diagnostics. In copy number variant (CNV) detection from NGS, many algorithms compare read depth between test samples and a reference sample, assuming they are process-matched. When this…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-16 Austin Talbot , Yue Ke

We study the merging and the testing of opinions in the context of a prediction model. In the absence of incentive problems, opinions can be tested and rejected, regardless of whether or not data produces consensus among Bayesian agents. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-30 Luciano Pomatto , Nabil Al-Najjar , Alvaro Sandroni

As language models (LMs) become capable of handling a wide range of tasks, their evaluation is becoming as challenging as their development. Most generation benchmarks currently assess LMs using abstract evaluation criteria like helpfulness…

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

We study mixed models with a single grouping factor, where inference about unknown parameters requires optimizing a marginal likelihood defined by an intractable integral. Low-dimensional numerical integration techniques are regularly used…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-22 Alex Stringer , Blair Bilodeau , Yanbo Tang

One of the most important empirical findings in microeconometrics is the pervasiveness of heterogeneity in economic behaviour (cf. Heckman 2001). This paper shows that cumulative distribution functions and quantiles of the nonparametric…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-19 Juan Carlos Escanciano

This work studies the class of algorithms for learning with side-information that emerge by extending generative models with embedded context-related variables. Using finite mixture models (FMM) as the prototypical Bayesian network, we show…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-17 Serafeim Perdikis , Robert Leeb , Ricardo Chavarriaga , José del R. Millán

A treatment may be appropriate for some group (the ``sick" group) on whom it has a positive effect, but it can also have a detrimental effect on subjects from another group (the ``healthy" group). In a non-targeted trial both sick and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Georgios Mavroudeas , Malik Magdon-Ismail , Kristin P. Bennett , Jason Kuruzovich

Motivated by problems in data clustering, we establish general conditions under which families of nonparametric mixture models are identifiable, by introducing a novel framework involving clustering overfitted \emph{parametric} (i.e.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-19 Bryon Aragam , Chen Dan , Eric P. Xing , Pradeep Ravikumar

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit probabilistic output characteristics, yet conventional evaluation frameworks rely on deterministic scalar metrics. This study introduces a Bayesian approach for LLM capability assessment that integrates…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Xiao Xiao , Yu Su , Sijing Zhang , Zhang Chen , Yadong Chen , Tian Liu

The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-05 Yaodong Yang , Rui Luo , Yuanyuan Liu

In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-21 George Karabatsos , Elizabeth Talbott , Stephen G. Walker

The present paper investigates non-asymptotic properties of two popular procedures of context tree (or Variable Length Markov Chains) estimation: Rissanen's algorithm Context and the Penalized Maximum Likelihood criterion. First showing how…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-30 Aurélien Garivier , Florencia Leonardi

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is widely used to compare multiple interventions simultaneously by synthesizing direct and indirect evidence. The general fixed or random effects contrast-based NMA model can be applied to different outcomes and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Harlan Campbell , Jeroen P. Jansen

Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for…

We present a structured additive regression approach to model conditional densities given scalar covariates, where only samples of the conditional distributions are observed. This links our approach to distributional regression models for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Eva-Maria Maier , Alexander Fottner , Sonja Greven , Almond Stöcker

We explore how violations of the often-overlooked standard assumption that the random effects model matrix in a linear mixed model is fixed (and thus independent of the random effects vector) can lead to bias in estimators of estimable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Andrew T. Karl , Dale L. Zimmerman