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The aim of this paper is to study the law of the last passage time of a linear diffusion to a curved boundary. We start by giving a general expression for the density of such a random variable under some regularity assumptions. Following…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-26 Christophe Profeta

We describe the processes obtained by time reversal of a class of stationary jump-diffusion processes that model the dynamics of genetic variation in populations subject to repeated bottlenecks. Assuming that only one lineage survives each…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-25 Martin Hutzenthaler , Jesse E. Taylor

This study proposes a stochastic model for loss-given-default (LGD) which provides the LGD distribution based on credit market and company-specific financial conditions. The model utilizes last passage time of a linear diffusion…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-04 Masahiko Egami , Rusudan Kevkhishvili

We consider the boundary crossing problem for time-homogeneous diffusions and general curvilinear boundaries. Bounds are derived for the approximation error of the one-sided (upper) boundary crossing probability when replacing the original…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-28 A. N. Downes , K. Borovkov

We study the statistics of last-passage time for linear diffusions. First we present an elementary derivation of the Laplace transform of the probability density of the last-passage time, thus recovering known results from the mathematical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-24 Alain Comtet , Françoise Cornu , Gregory Schehr

Motivated by entropic optimal transport, time reversal of diffusion processes is revisited. An integration by parts formula is derived for the carr\'e du champ of a Markov process in an abstract space. It leads to a time reversal formula…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-05 Patrick Cattiaux , Giovanni Conforti , Ivan Gentil , Christian Léonard

We consider the problem of simulating diffusion bridges, which are diffusion processes that are conditioned to initialize and terminate at two given states. The simulation of diffusion bridges has applications in diverse scientific fields…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-19 Jeremy Heng , Valentin De Bortoli , Arnaud Doucet , James Thornton

Diffusion with an incorporated resetting mechanism provides a reference framework for modeling a wide range of natural phenomena. Within this framework, the optimal resetting rate is a key quantity that arises from the optimization of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-12 Pedro Julián-Salgado , Pavel Castro-Villarreal , Leonardo Dagdug , Denis Boyer

Evaluating the completion time of a random algorithm or a running stochastic process is a valuable tip not only from a purely theoretical, but also pragmatic point of view. In the formal sense, this kind of a task is specified in terms of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-11-24 Przemyslaw Chelminiak

We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-03-25 Jaume Masoliver , Josep Perello

In this paper, we investigate the construction of a diffusion process whose time-marginal densities are constrained to belong to a given set at all time. The construction is obtained from a penalization approximation to the constraint set,…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-20 Jean-Francois Jabir

We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajec- tories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-21 Botond Cseke , David Schnoerr , Manfred Opper , Guido Sanguinetti

By considering any one-dimensional time-homogeneous solvable diffusion process,this paper develops a complete analytical framework for computing the distribution of the last hitting time, to any level, and its joint distribution with the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Giuseppe Campolieti , Yaode Sui

We study directed last-passage percolation on the planar square lattice whose weights have general distributions, or equivalently, queues in series with general service distributions. Each row of the last passage model has its own randomly…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-30 Hao Lin

The recurrence times between extreme events have been the central point of statistical analyses in many different areas of science. Simultaneously, the Poincar\'e recurrence time has been extensively used to characterize nonlinear dynamical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Eduardo G. Altmann , Holger Kantz

With significant advancements in diffusion models, addressing the potential risks of dataset bias becomes increasingly important. Since generated outputs directly suffer from dataset bias, mitigating latent bias becomes a key factor in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Yeongmin Kim , Byeonghu Na , Minsang Park , JoonHo Jang , Dongjun Kim , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon

This paper presents a novel approach for steering the state of a stochastic control-affine system to a desired target within a finite time horizon. Our method leverages the time-reversal of diffusion processes to construct the required…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-11 Yuhang Mei , Amirhossein Taghvaei , Ali Pakniyat

We survey some results and applications of last percolation models of which the limiting distribution can be evaluated.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jinho Baik

The scope of this paper is generative modeling through diffusion processes. An approach falling within this paradigm is the work of Song et al. (2021), which relies on a time-reversal argument to construct a diffusion process targeting the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-25 Stefano Peluchetti

In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-13 Gianluca Rosso
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