Loss-Given-Default Modeling by Post-Last Passage Time Process
Abstract
This study proposes a stochastic model for loss-given-default (LGD) which provides the LGD distribution based on credit market and company-specific financial conditions. The model utilizes last passage time of a linear diffusion (representing firm value) to a certain threshold point, after which default occurs as a surprising event. By treating the post-last passage time process in a continuum of the original process, we are able to use firm-value approach before and intensity-based approach after the last passage time, leading to a hybrid model. Under minimal and standard assumptions, we obtain the distributions of default time and LGD explicitly. We provide a computationally simple estimation procedure and real-world examples of estimated LGD distribution implied in CDS market.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2009.00868,
title = {Loss-Given-Default Modeling by Post-Last Passage Time Process},
author = {Masahiko Egami and Rusudan Kevkhishvili},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2009.00868},
year = {2025}
}