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We present several Monte Carlo strategies for simulating discrete-time Markov chains with continuous multi-dimensional state space; we focus on stratified techniques. We first analyze the variance of the calculation of the measure of a…
Temporal distribution shifts pose a key challenge for machine learning models trained and deployed in dynamically evolving environments. This paper introduces RIDER (RIsk minimization under Dynamically Evolving Regimes) which derives…
Importance sampling of trajectories has proved a uniquely successful strategy for exploring rare dynamical behaviors of complex systems in an unbiased way. Carrying out this sampling, however, requires an ability to propose changes to…
Accurately analyzing graph properties of social networks is a challenging task because of access limitations to the graph data. To address this challenge, several algorithms to obtain unbiased estimates of properties from few samples via a…
This work focuses on the issue of variable selection in functional regression. Unlike most work in this framework, our approach does not select isolated points in the definition domain of the predictors, nor does it rely on the expansion of…
Many processes of spreading and diffusion take place on temporal networks, and their outcomes are influenced by correlations in the times of contact. These correlations have a particularly strong influence on processes where the spreading…
Computationally expensive simulators, implementing mathematical models in computer codes, are commonly approximated using statistical emulators. We develop and assess novel emulation methods for systems best modelled via a chain, series or…
Spreading processes are ubiquitous in natural and artificial systems. They can be studied via a plethora of models, depending on the specific details of the phenomena under study. Disease contagion and rumor spreading are among the most…
We present an efficient routing approach for delivering packets in complex networks. On delivering a message from a node to a destination, a node forwards the message to a neighbor by estimating the waiting time along the shortest path from…
For the first time proposed: a method for representing the projections of a graph in computer memory and a description based on it of a quick search for shortest paths in unweighted dynamic graphs. The spatial complexity of the projection…
Extending the quickest path problem to the network reliability, a new problem emerged which aims to assess the network reliability for transmitting at least d units of data from a source node to a sink node through one minimal path (MP)…
In power system dynamic simulation, up to 90% of the computational time is devoted to solve the network equations, i.e., a set of linear equations. Traditional approaches are based on sparse LU factorization, which is inherently sequential.…
In this paper, I present an algorithm called Raffica algorithm for Single-Source Shortest Path(SSSP). On random graph, this algorithm has linear time complexity(in expect). More precisely, the random graph uses configuration model, and the…
The shortest path problem is among the most fundamental combinatorial optimization problems to answer reachability queries. It is hard to deter-mine which vertices or edges are visited during shortest path traversals. In this paper, we…
Dynamic trajectories can be modeled with a Markov State Model (MSM). The reduction of continuous space coordinates to discretized coordinates can be done by statistical binning process. In addition to that, the transition probabilities can…
This paper presents a four-stage algorithm for the realization of multi-input/multi-output (MIMO) switched linear systems (SLSs) from Markov parameters. In the first stage, a linear time-varying (LTV) realization that is topologically…
It is in practice impossible to describe the topology of a real network or its message propagation process using a single dynamic model. To address this issue, we constructed a new hybrid network model based on scale-free (SF), small-world…
We introduce Path-ZVA: an efficient simulation technique for estimating the probability of reaching a rare goal state before a regeneration state in a (discrete-time) Markov chain. Standard Monte Carlo simulation techniques do not work well…
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for…
Utilizing a generative regime switching framework, we perform Monte-Carlo simulations of asset returns for Value at Risk threshold estimation. Using equity markets and long term bonds as test assets in the global, US, Euro area and UK…