Related papers: Nonparametric estimation of conditional value-at-r…

We propose a sigmoidal approximation for the value-at-risk (that we call SigVaR) and we use this approximation to tackle nonlinear programs (NLPs) with chance constraints. We prove that the approximation is conservative and that the level…

We propose an empirically stable and asymptotically efficient covariate-balancing approach to the problem of estimating survival causal effects in data with conditionally-independent censoring. This addresses a challenge often encountered…

This paper studies a fixed-design residual bootstrap method for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Expected Shortfall. For a general class of volatility models the bootstrap is shown to be…

In the multivariate setting, estimates of extremal risk measures are important in many contexts, such as environmental planning and structural engineering. In this paper, we propose new estimation methods for extremal bivariate return…

In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…

This paper proposes a model-free nonparametric estimator of conditional quantile of a time series regression model where the covariate vector is repeated many times for different values of the response. This type of data is abound in…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…

Model misspecification in multivariate econometric models can strongly influence estimates of quantities of interest such as structural parameters, forecast distributions or responses to structural shocks, even more so if higher-order…

This paper considers the specification of covariance structures with tail estimates. We focus on two aspects: (i) the estimation of the VaR-CoVaR risk matrix in the case of larger number of time series observations than assets in a…

We propose and analyze algorithms for distributionally robust optimization of convex losses with conditional value at risk (CVaR) and $\chi^2$ divergence uncertainty sets. We prove that our algorithms require a number of gradient…

We consider a liquidation problem in which a risk-averse trader tries to liquidate a fixed quantity of an asset in the presence of market impact and random price fluctuations. The trader encounters a trade-off between the transaction costs…

Considering non-stationary environments in online optimization enables decision-maker to effectively adapt to changes and improve its performance over time. In such cases, it is favorable to adopt a strategy that minimizes the negative…

We introduce the ARCH-m(X) model, a semiparametric extension of the ARCH-X framework in which the effect of a multivariate exogenous covariate vector X on the conditional variance is modeled through an unknown nonparametric function m(),…

We study learning algorithms that seek to minimize the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), when all the learner knows is that the losses incurred may be heavy-tailed. We begin by studying a general-purpose estimator of CVaR for potentially…

We consider the problem of regression with selectively observed covariates in a nonparametric framework. Our approach relies on instrumental variables that explain variation in the latent covariates but have no direct effect on selection.…

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…

In this paper, we propose a reduced-bias estimator of the EVI for Pareto-type tails (heavy-tailed) distributions. This is derived using the weighted least squares method. It is shown that the estimator is unbiased, consistent and…

Options are generally learned by using an inaccurate environment model (or simulator), which contains uncertain model parameters. While there are several methods to learn options that are robust against the uncertainty of model parameters,…

We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset…

In this paper, we consider a functional linear regression model, where both the covariate and the response variable are functional random variables. We address the problem of optimal nonparametric estimation of the conditional expectation…