Related papers: Nonparametric estimation of conditional value-at-r…
Accurate computation of robust estimates for extremal quantiles of empirical distributions is an essential task for a wide range of applicative fields, including economic policymaking and the financial industry. Such estimates are…
The modeling of high-frequency data that qualify financial asset transactions has been an area of relevant interest among statisticians and econometricians -- above all, the analysis of time series of financial durations. Autoregressive…
Motivated by the prominence of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure for tail risk in settings affected by uncertainty, we develop a new formula for approximating CVaR based optimization objectives and their gradients from limited…
We propose a variational autoencoder (VAE) approach for parameter estimation in nonlinear mixed-effects models based on ordinary differential equations (NLME-ODEs) using longitudinal data from multiple subjects. In moderate dimensions,…
In risk management, often the probability must be estimated that a random vector falls into an extreme failure set. In the framework of bivariate extreme value theory, we construct an estimator for such failure probabilities and analyze its…
Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of…
We address causal estimation in semi-competing risks settings, where a non-terminal event may be precluded by one or more terminal events. We define a principal-stratification causal estimand for treatment effects on the non-terminal event,…
One of the main topics of extreme value analysis is to estimate the extreme value index, an important parameter that controls the tail behavior of the distribution. In many cases, estimating the extreme value index of the target variable…
This paper concerns sequential computation of risk measures for financial data and asks how, given a risk measurement procedure, we can tell whether the answers it produces are `correct'. We draw the distinction between `external' and…
We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the…
In this study, we propose a new definition of multivariate conditional value-at-risk (MCVaR) as a set of vectors for discrete probability spaces. We explore the properties of the vector-valued MCVaR (VMCVaR) and show the advantages of…
Operational risk capital estimation under Basel II/III requires quantifying aggregate losses at extreme confidence levels of 99.9% and beyond, yet the standard Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) assumes independence between loss frequency and…
This work addresses the problem of estimating the parameters of the general half-normal distribution. Namely, the problem of determining the minimum risk equi\-va\-riant (MRE) estimators of the parameters is explored. Simulation studies are…
We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…
We introduce an equilibrium asset pricing model, which we build on the relationship between a novel risk measure, the Expected Downside Risk (EDR) and the expected return. On the one hand, our proposed risk measure uses a nonparametric…
This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these…
Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…
This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…
This paper considers nonparametric identification and estimation of the regression function when a covariate is mismeasured. The measurement error need not be classical. Employing the small measurement error approximation, we establish…
Non-stationary approximations of the final value of a converging sequence are discussed, and we show that extremal eigenvalues can be reasonably estimated from the CG iterates without much computation at all. We introduce estimators of…