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Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Jan van Waaij

We study a Bayesian approach to nonparametric estimation of the periodic drift function of a one-dimensional diffusion from continuous-time data. Rewriting the likelihood in terms of local time of the process, and specifying a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-14 Y. Pokern , A. M. Stuart , J. H. van Zanten

We study nonparametric Bayesian models for reversible multi-dimensional diffusions with periodic drift. For continuous observation paths, reversibility is exploited to prove a general posterior contraction rate theorem for the drift…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-02 Matteo Giordano , Kolyan Ray

In this paper, we consider the robust adaptive non parametric estimation problem for the drift coefficient in diffusion processes. An adaptive model selection procedure, based on the improved weighted least square estimates, is proposed.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Evgeny Pchelintsev , Svyatoslav Perelevskiy , Irina Makarova

A non-parametric diffusion model with an additive fractional Brownian motion noise is considered in this work. The drift is a non-parametric function that will be estimated by two methods. On one hand, we propose a locally linear estimator…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-13 Bruno Saussereau

We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a reflected diffusion model $dX_t = b (X_t)dt + \sigma(X_t) dW_t,$ with discretely sampled observations $X_0, X_\Delta, \dots, X_{n\Delta}$. We analyse the nonlinear inverse problem…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-26 Richard Nickl , Jakob Söhl

In the present paper, we consider that $N$ diffusion processes $X^1,\dots,X^N$ are observed on $[0,T]$, where $T$ is fixed and $N$ grows to infinity. Contrary to most of the recent works, we no longer assume that the processes are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Fabienne Comte , Nicolas Marie

We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a multidimensional diffusion model with reflecting boundary conditions based on discrete high-frequency observations. We prove a general posterior contraction rate theorem in $L^2$-loss, which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Marc Hoffmann , Kolyan Ray

We study Bayes procedures for the problem of nonparametric drift estimation for one-dimensional, ergodic diffusion models from discrete-time, low-frequency data. We give conditions for posterior consistency and verify these conditions for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-01 Frank van der Meulen , Harry van Zanten

This paper addresses the nonparametric estimation of the drift function over a compact domain for a time-homogeneous diffusion process, based on high-frequency discrete observations from $N$ independent trajectories. We propose a neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-01 Yuzhen Zhao , Yating Liu , Marc Hoffmann

The frequentist behavior of nonparametric Bayes estimates, more specifically, rates of contraction of the posterior distributions to shrinking $L^r$-norm neighborhoods, $1\le r\le\infty$, of the unknown parameter, are studied. A theorem for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-12 Evarist Giné , Richard Nickl

We consider inference in the scalar diffusion model $dX_t=b(X_t)dt+\sigma(X_t)dW_t$ with discrete data $(X_{j\Delta_n})_{0\leq j \leq n}$, $n\to \infty,~\Delta_n\to 0$ and periodic coefficients. For $\sigma$ given, we prove a general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-24 Kweku Abraham

In this article, we consider a jump diffusion process (X_t)observed at discrete times t=0,Delta,...,nDelta. The sampling interval Delta tends to 0 and nDelta tends to infinity. We assume that (X_t) is ergodic, strictly stationary and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-27 Emeline Schmisser

We consider a 1-dimensional diffusion process X with jumps. The particularity of this model relies in the jumps which are driven by a multidimensional Hawkes process denoted N. This article is dedicated to the study of a nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-05 Charlotte Dion , Sarah Lemler

The nonparametric estimation of the volatility and the drift coefficient of a scalar diffusion is studied when the process is observed at random time points. The constructed estimator generalizes the spectral method by Gobet, Hoffmann and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-12 Jakub Chorowski , Mathias Trabs

We discuss parametric estimation of a degenerate diffusion system from time-discrete observations. The first component of the degenerate diffusion system has a parameter $\theta_1$ in a non-degenerate diffusion coefficient and a parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-25 Arnaud Gloter , Nakahiro Yoshida

This paper deals with a copies-based continuously differentiable and strictly decreasing estimator of the drift function for stochastic differential equations defining recurrent diffusion processes. The first part of our paper deals with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Nicolas Marie

We consider the question of estimating the drift and the invariant density for a large class of scalar ergodic diffusion processes, based on continuous observations, in $\sup$-norm loss. The unknown drift $b$ is supposed to belong to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-03 Cathrine Aeckerle-Willems , Claudia Strauch

The problem of determining a periodic Lipschitz vector field $b=(b_1, \dots, b_d)$ from an observed trajectory of the solution $(X_t: 0 \le t \le T)$ of the multi-dimensional stochastic differential equation \begin{equation*} dX_t =…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-21 Richard Nickl , Kolyan Ray

Given a Wiener process with unknown and unobservable drift, we try to estimate this drift as effectively but also as quickly as possible, in the presence of a quadratic penalty for the estimation error and of a fixed, positive cost per unit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-24 Erik Ekström , Ioannis Karatzas , Juozas Vaicenavicius
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