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We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We present a sequential Monte Carlo sampler variant of the partial rejection control algorithm, and show that this variant can be considered as a sequential Monte Carlo sampler with a modified mutation kernel. We prove that the new sampler…

Computation · Statistics 2009-11-11 G. W. Peters , Y. Fan , S. A. Sisson

We obtain non asymptotic bounds for the Monte Carlo algorithm associated to the Euler discretization of some diffusion processes. The key tool is the Gaussian concentration satisfied by the density of the discretization scheme. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-20 Vincent Lemaire , Stephane Menozzi

In this work we develop an effective Monte Carlo method for estimating sensitivities, or gradients of expectations of sufficiently smooth functionals, of a reflected diffusion in a convex polyhedral domain with respect to its defining…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-01 David Lipshutz , Kavita Ramanan

We consider systems of stochastic differential equations with multiple scales and small noise and assume that the coefficients of the equations are ergodic and stationary random fields. Our goal is to construct provably-efficient importance…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-29 Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

This work is motivated by the need to study the impact of data uncertainties and material imperfections on the solution to optimal control problems constrained by partial differential equations. We consider a pathwise optimal control…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Ahmad Ahmad Ali , Elisabeth Ullmann , Michael Hinze

A discretization scheme for nonnegative diffusion processes is proposed and the convergence of the corresponding sequence of approximate processes is proved using the martingale problem framework. Motivations for this scheme come typically…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-11-16 Chantal Labbé , Bruno Rémillard , Jean-François Renaud

The control variates method is a classical variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo estimators that exploits correlated auxiliary variables without introducing bias. In many applications, the quantity of interest can be expressed as a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-10 Louison Bocquet-Nouaille , Jérôme Morio , Benjamin Bobbia

Dirichlet distributions are probability measures on the unit simplex. They are often used as prior distributions in modeling categorical data, such as in topic analysis of text data. Motivated by this application, we consider Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Ayeong Lee

A new method called "variational sampling" is proposed to estimate integrals under probability distributions that can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant. The key idea is to fit the target distribution with an exponential family model…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-15 Alexis Roche

In this paper we consider parameter estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes. In particular, we focus on data that are observed at low frequency and methodology that can estimate parameters with uncertainty quantification.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-01 Jingning Yao , Ajay Jasra , Sheng Jiang

Many popular statistical models for complex phenomena are intractable, in the sense that the likelihood function cannot easily be evaluated. Bayesian estimation in this setting remains challenging, with a lack of computational methodology…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-31 Nial Friel , Antonietta Mira , Chris. J. Oates

We provide convergence guarantees in Wasserstein distance for a variety of variance-reduction methods: SAGA Langevin diffusion, SVRG Langevin diffusion and control-variate underdamped Langevin diffusion. We analyze these methods under a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-16 Niladri S. Chatterji , Nicolas Flammarion , Yi-An Ma , Peter L. Bartlett , Michael I. Jordan

The paper considers an Euler discretization based numerical scheme for approximating functionals of invariant distribution of an ergodic diffusion. Convergence of the numerical scheme is shown for suitably chosen discretization step, and a…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-31 Arnab Ganguly , P. Sundar

Statistical inference for discretely observed jump-diffusion processes is a complex problem which motivates new methodological challenges. Thus existing approaches invariably resort to time-discretisations which inevitably lead to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-02 Flávio B. Gonçalves , Krzysztof G. Łatuszyński , Gareth O. Roberts

Variational inference in Bayesian deep learning often involves computing the gradient of an expectation that lacks a closed-form solution. In these cases, pathwise and score-function gradient estimators are the most common approaches. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Kenyon Ng , Susan Wei

This paper introduces a class of Monte Carlo algorithms which are based upon the simulation of a Markov process whose quasi-stationary distribution coincides with a distribution of interest. This differs fundamentally from, say, current…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-14 Murray Pollock , Paul Fearnhead , Adam M. Johansen , Gareth O. Roberts

Continuous level Monte Carlo is an unbiased, continuous version of the celebrated multilevel Monte Carlo method. The approximation level is assumed to be continuous resulting in a stochastic process describing the quantity of interest.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-19 Cedric Aaron Beschle , Andrea Barth

Monte Carlo sampling techniques have broad applications in machine learning, Bayesian posterior inference, and parameter estimation. Often the target distribution takes the form of a product distribution over a dataset with a large number…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-19 Charles Matthews , Jonathan Weare

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet