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This paper proposes a new minimum description length procedure to detect multiple changepoints in time series data when some times are a priori thought more likely to be changepoints. This scenario arises with temperature time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-14 Yingbo Li , Robert Lund , Anuradha Hewaarachchi

We consider the problem of detecting jumps in an otherwise smoothly evolving trend whilst the covariance and higher-order structures of the system can experience both smooth and abrupt changes over time. The number of jump points is allowed…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-27 Weichi Wu , Zhou Zhou

This short note suggests a heuristic method for detecting the dependence of random time series that can be used in the case when this dependence is relatively weak and such that the traditional methods are not effective. The method requires…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-02-03 Nikolai Dokuchaev

Change-point detection and locally stationary time series modeling are two major approaches for the analysis of non-stationary data. The former aims to identify stationary phases by detecting abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Wai Leong Ng , Xinyi Tang , Mun Lau Cheung , Jiacheng Gao , Chun Yip Yau , Holger Dette

In this paper we study online change point detection in dynamic networks with time heterogeneous missing pattern within networks and dependence across the time course. The missingness probabilities, the entrywise sparsity of networks, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-24 Haotian Xu , Paromita Dubey , Yi Yu

Non-stationary sequences arise naturally in control, forecasting, and decision-making. The data-generating process shifts at unknown times, and models must detect the change, discard or downweight obsolete evidence, and adapt to new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Carson Dudley , Yutong Bi , Xiaofeng Liu , Samet Oymak

Change-point processes are one flexible approach to model long time series. We propose a method to uncover which model parameter truly vary when a change-point is detected. Given a set of breakpoints, we use a penalized likelihood approach…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-09 Arnaud Dufays , Aristide Houndetoungan , Alain Coën

We study the probabilistic behavior of persistence-based statistics and propose a novel nonparametric framework for detecting structural changes in high-dimensional random point clouds. We establish moment bounds and tightness results for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Toshiyuki Nakayama

To detect changes in the mean of a time series, one may use previsible detection procedures based on nonparametric kernel prediction smoothers which cover various classic detection statistics as special cases. Bandwidth selection,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-20 Ansgar Steland

We consider the testing and estimation of change-points, locations where the distribution abruptly changes, in a sequence of multivariate or non-Euclidean observations. We study a nonparametric framework that utilizes similarity information…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-23 Lynna Chu , Hao Chen

The aim of this paper is first the detection of multiple abrupt changes of the long-range dependence (respectively self-similarity, local fractality) parameters from a sample of a Gaussian stationary times series (respectively time series,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-12-10 Jean-Marc Bardet , Imen Kammoun

As contemporary software-intensive systems reach increasingly large scale, it is imperative that failure detection schemes be developed to help prevent costly system downtimes. A promising direction towards the construction of such schemes…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-27 Alexey Artemov , Evgeny Burnaev

In a variety of different settings cumulative sum (CUSUM) procedures have been applied for the sequential detection of structural breaks in the parameters of stochastic models. Yet their performance depends strongly on the time of change…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-07 Stefan Fremdt

In this paper, we present a general framework for testing relevant hypotheses in functional time series. Our unified approach covers one-sample, two-sample, and change point problems under contaminated observations with arbitrary sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-27 Leheng Cai , Qirui Hu

In a sequence of multivariate observations or non-Euclidean data objects, such as networks, local dependence is common and could lead to false change-point discoveries. We propose a new way of permutation -- circular block permutation with…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-06 Hao Chen

New procedures for detecting a change in the cross-sectional mean of panel data are proposed. The procedures rely on estimating nuisance parameters using certain cross-sectional means across panels using a weighted least squares regression.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Charl Pretorius , Heinrich Roodt

The objective of the change-point detection is to discover the abrupt property changes lying behind the time-series data. In this paper, we firstly summarize the definition and in-depth implication of the changepoint detection. The next…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-21 Yixiao Li , Gloria Lin , Thomas Lau , Ruochen Zeng

Generative, temporal network models play an important role in analyzing the dependence structure and evolution patterns of complex networks. Due to the complicated nature of real network data, it is often naive to assume that the underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-15 Daniel Cirkovic , Tiandong Wang , Xianyang Zhang

This paper proposes a moving sum methodology for detecting multiple change points in high-dimensional time series under a factor model, where changes are attributed to those in loadings as well as emergence or disappearance of factors. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Matteo Barigozzi , Haeran Cho , Lorenzo Trapani

In the common time series model $X_{i,n} = \mu (i/n) + \varepsilon_{i,n}$ with non-stationary errors we consider the problem of detecting a significant deviation of the mean function $\mu$ from a benchmark $g (\mu )$ (such as the initial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-25 Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs