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We present a novel and flexible data-driven framework for estimating the response of higher-order moments of nonlinear stochastic systems to small external perturbations. The classical Generalized Fluctuation--Dissipation Theorem (GFDT)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-28 Ludovico T. Giorgini , Fabrizio Falasca , Andre N. Souza

We model two time and space scales discrete observations by using a unique continuous diffusion process with time dependent coefficient. We define new parameters for the large scale model as functions of the small scale distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-09 V. Calian , G. Stefansson , L. P. Folkow , A. S. Blix

In Bayesian inference, an unknown measurement uncertainty is often quantified in terms of a Gamma distributed precision parameter, which is impractical when prior information on the standard deviation of the measurement uncertainty shall be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Manuel M. Eichenlaub

We consider a class of systems with time-varying parameters, which are written as linear regressions with bounded disturbances. The task is to estimate such parameters under the condition that the regressor is finitely exciting (FE).…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-11-24 Anton Glushchenko , Konstantin Lastochkin

A singularly perturbed linear system of second order ordinary differential equations of reaction-diffusion type with given boundary conditions is considered. The leading term of each equation is multiplied by a small positive parameter.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2009-06-23 M. Paramasivam , S. Valarmathi , J. J. H. Miller

In this paper, we consider queueing systems where the dynamics are non-stationary and state-dependent. For performance analysis of these systems, fluid and diffusion models have been typically used. Although they are proven to be…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-08 Young Myoung Ko , Natarajan Gautam

We revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. Counterintuitively, we show that when the underlying dynamics are stable the parameters of this model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-03 Ali Jadbabaie , Horia Mania , Devavrat Shah , Suvrit Sra

This paper addresses the estimation of uncertain distributed diffusion coefficients in elliptic systems based on noisy measurements of the model output. We formulate the parameter identification problem as an infinite dimensional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Jeff Borggaard , Hans-Werner van Wyk

Many approaches to modelling reaction-diffusion systems with anomalous transport rely on deterministic equations and ignore fluctuations arising due to finite particle numbers. Starting from an individual-based model we use a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-29 Joseph W. Baron , Tobias Galla

We consider the problem of statistical inference for the effective dynamics of multiscale diffusion processes with (at least) two widely separated characteristic time scales. More precisely, we seek to determine parameters in the effective…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-30 Sebastian Krumscheid , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Serafim Kalliadasis

For a one dimensional diffusion process $X=\{X(t) ; 0\leq t \leq T \}$, we suppose that $X(t)$ is hidden if it is below some fixed and known threshold $\tau$, but otherwise it is visible. This means a partially hidden diffusion process. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-09 Stefano Iacus , Masayuki Uchida , Nakahiro Yoshida

Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-01-20 Matthias Morzfeld , Xuemin Tu , Jon Wilkening , Alexandre J. Chorin

As a concrete setting where stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are able to model real phenomena, we propose a stochastic Meinhardt model for cell repolarisation and study how parameter estimation techniques developed for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-17 Randolf Altmeyer , Till Bretschneider , Josef Janák , Markus Reiß

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Ben Swallow , David A. Rand , Giorgos Minas

We propose a new semiparametric approach for modelling nonlinear univariate diffusions, where the observed process is a nonparametric transformation of an underlying parametric diffusion (UPD). This modelling strategy yields a general class…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-08 Ruijun Bu , Kaddour Hadri , Dennis Kristensen

We consider a system of diffusion processes that interact through their empirical mean and have a stabilizing force acting on each of them, corresponding to a bistable potential. There are three parameters that characterize the system: the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-08-31 Josselin Garnier , George Papanicolaou , Tzu-Wei Yang

We derive and prove the path-kernel formula for the linear response (parameter-derivative of averaged statistics) of SDEs. The parameter may affect the drift coefficient, the diffusion coefficient, and the initial condition. The formula…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-01 Angxiu Ni

This paper introduces a new model for highly accurate distribution voltage solutions, coined as a parameterized linear power flow model. The proffered model is grounded on a physical model of linear power flow equations, and uses…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-03 Marija Marković , Bri-Mathias Hodge

Cognitive processes undergo various fluctuations and transient states across different temporal scales. Superstatistics are emerging as a flexible framework for incorporating such non-stationary dynamics into existing cognitive model…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-02 Lukas Schumacher , Martin Schnuerch , Andreas Voss , Stefan T. Radev

We introduce a novel particle-based algorithm for end-to-end training of latent diffusion models. We reformulate the training task as minimizing a free energy functional and obtain a gradient flow that does so. By approximating the latter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Tim Y. J. Wang , Juan Kuntz , O. Deniz Akyildiz