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We first show that there are practical situations in for instance forensic and gambling settings, in which applying classical probability theory, that is, based on the axioms of Kolmogorov, is problematic. We then introduce and discuss…
Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…
Kolmogorov complexity and algorithmic probability are defined only up to an additive resp. multiplicative constant, since their actual values depend on the choice of the universal reference computer. In this paper, we analyze a natural…
The use of algorithmic information theory (Kolmogorov complexity theory) to explain the relation between mathematical probability theory and `real world' is discussed.
In 1933 Kolmogorov constructed a general theory that defines the modern concept of conditional probability. In 1955 Renyi fomulated a new axiomatic theory for probability motivated by the need to include unbounded measures. This note…
Cromwell's rule (also known as the zero priors paradox) refers to the constraint of classical probability theory that if one assigns a prior probability of 0 or 1 to a hypothesis, then the posterior has to be 0 or 1 as well (this is a…
We present and examine a result related to uncertainty reasoning, namely that a certain plausibility space of Cox's type can be uniquely embedded in a minimal ordered field. This, although a purely mathematical result, can be claimed to…
In the 1940's, a physicist named Cox provided the first formal justification for the axioms of probability based on the subjective or Bayesian interpretation. He showed that if a measure of belief satisfies several fundamental properties,…
The probability distribution P from which the history of our universe is sampled represents a theory of everything or TOE. We assume P is formally describable. Since most (uncountably many) distributions are not, this imposes a strong…
Previous derivations of the sum and product rules of probability theory relied on the algebraic properties of Boolean logic. Here they are derived within a more general framework based on lattice theory. The result is a new foundation of…
Physicists have, hitherto, mostly adopted a frequentist conception of probability, according to which probability statements apply only to ensembles. It is argued that we should, instead, adopt an epistemic, or Bayesian conception, in which…
Richard Cox [1] set the axiomatic foundations of probable inference and the algebra of propositions. He showed that consistency within these axioms requires certain rules for updating belief. In this paper we use the analogy between…
A selection of the relevant theorems of Probability Theory that comes directly from Kolmogorov's axioms, Set Theory basic results, definitions and rules of inference are listed and proven in a systematic approach, aiming the student who…
Zipf's law in its basic incarnation is an empirical probability distribution governing the frequency of usage of words in a language. As Terence Tao recently remarked, it still lacks a convincing and satisfactory mathematical explanation.…
Most scholars maintain that quantum mechanics (QM) is a contextual theory and that quantum probability does not allow an epistemic (ignorance) interpretation. By inquiring possible connections between contextuality and non-classical…
We consider the problem of inferring the probability distribution associated with a language, given data consisting of an infinite sequence of elements of the languge. We do this under two assumptions on the algorithms concerned: (i) like a…
Conditional probabilities in quantum systems which have both initial and final boundary conditions are commonly evaluated using the Aharonov-Bergmann-Lebowitz rule. In this short note we present a seemingly disturbing paradox that appears…
We formulate the conditional Kolmogorov complexity of x given y at precision r, where x and y are points in Euclidean spaces and r is a natural number. We demonstrate the utility of this notion in two ways. 1. We prove a point-to-set…
We use sets of assignments, a.k.a. teams, and measures on them to define probabilities of first-order formulas in given data. We then axiomatise first-order properties of such probabilities and prove a completeness theorem for our…
This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…