Related papers: Maximum likelihood drift estimation for Gaussian p…

Given a standard Brownian motion $B^{\mu}=(B_t^{\mu})_{0\le t\le T}$ with drift $\mu \in IR$ and letting $g$ denote the last zero of $B^{\mu}$ before $T$, we consider the optimal prediction problem V_*=\inf_{0\le \tau \le T}\mathsf…

Let $B^{a,b}:=\{B_t^{a,b},t\geq0\}$ be a weighted fractional Brownian motion of parameters $a>-1$, $|b|<1$, $|b|<a+1$. We consider a least square-type method to estimate the drift parameter $\theta>0$ of the weighted fractional…

Large-scale Gaussian process models are becoming increasingly important and widely used in many areas, such as, computer experiments, stochastic optimization via simulation, and machine learning using Gaussian processes. The standard…

This paper deals with the process $X = (X_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ defined by the stochastic differential equation (SDE) $dX_t = (a(X_t) + b(Y_t))dt +\sigma(X_t)dW_1(t)$, where $W_1$ is a Brownian motion and $Y$ is an exogenous process. The first…

We consider the problem of Hurst index estimation for solutions of stochastic differential equations driven by an additive fractional Brownian motion. Using techniques of the Malliavin calculus, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the…

Our aim in this article is to provide explicit computable estimates for the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) and the $p$-th order moment of the exponential functional of a fractional Brownian motion (fBM) with drift. Using…

Consider the Slepian process $S$ defined by $ S(t)=B(t+1)-B(t),t\in [0,1]$ with $B(t),t\in \R$ a standard Brownian motion.In this contribution we analyze the joint distribution between the maximum $m_{s}=\max_{0\leq u\leq s}S(u)$ certain…

We deal with stochastic differential equations with jumps. In order to obtain an accurate approximation scheme, it is usual to replace the "small jumps" by a Brownian motion. In this paper, we prove that for every fixed time $t$, the…

We discuss some extensions of results from the recent paper by Chernoyarov et al. (Ann. Inst. Stat. Math., October 2016) concerning limit distributions of Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators in the model "signal plus white noise"…

This paper proposes a new approach for Bayesian and maximum likelihood parameter estimation for stationary Gaussian processes observed on a large lattice with missing values. We propose an MCMC approach for Bayesian inference, and a Monte…

As an automatic method of determining model complexity using the training data alone, Bayesian linear regression provides us a principled way to select hyperparameters. But one often needs approximation inference if distribution assumption…

We consider the problem of estimating a smooth functional of an unknown signal with discontinuity from Gaussian observations. The signal is a known function that depends on an unknown parameter. This problem is closely related to the famous…

We study the problem of maximum likelihood estimation given one data sample ($n=1$) over Brownian Motion Tree Models (BMTMs), a class of Gaussian models on trees. BMTMs are often used as a null model in phylogenetics, where the one-sample…

We calculate the probability $p_c$ that the maximum of a reflected Brownian motion $U$ is achieved on a complete excursion, i.e. $p_c:=P\big(\overline{U}(t)=U^*(t)\big)$ where $\overline{U}(t)$ (respectively $U^*(t)$) is the maximum of the…

We give an explicit formula for the reciprocal maximum likelihood degree of Brownian motion tree models. To achieve this, we connect them to certain toric (or log-linear) models, and express the Brownian motion tree model of an arbitrary…

This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns…

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the Hurst exponent of the fractional Brownian motion from continuous time noisy sample. Consistent estimation in the setup under consideration is possible only if either the length of the…

This paper develops a generalization of Brownian motion with stationary, autocorrelated increments as a tractable model for problems in business and finance. We show that any real continuous Gaussian Markov process with stationary…

Let $B_H(\cdot)$ be a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H\in(0,1]$. Motivated by applications to maximal inequalities for fractional Brownian motion, in this note we derive bounds for…

Let $(B(t))_{t\in \Theta}$ with $\Theta={\mathbb Z}$ or $\Theta={\mathbb R}$ be a wide sense stationary process with discrete or continuous time. The classical linear prediction problem consists of finding an element in…