Related papers: Maximum likelihood drift estimation for Gaussian p…
A non-parametric diffusion model with an additive fractional Brownian motion noise is considered in this work. The drift is a non-parametric function that will be estimated by two methods. On one hand, we propose a locally linear estimator…
In this article we consider a Brownian motion with drift of the form \[dS_t=\mu_t dt+dB_t\qquadfor t\ge0,\] with a specific nontrivial $(\mu_t)_{t\geq0}$, predictable with respect to $\mathbb{F}^B$, the natural filtration of the Brownian…
Lagrangian Particle Tracking (LPT) enables practitioners to study various concepts in turbulence by measuring particle positions in flows of interest. This data is subject to measurement errors, and filtering techniques are applied to…
We study the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator corresponding to the observation of a trajectory of a Skew Brownian motion, through a uniform time discretization. We characterize the speed of convergence and the…
The behavior of maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) and the likelihood ratio statistic in a family of problems involving pointwise nonparametric estimation of a monotone function is studied. This class of problems differs radically from the…
This paper deals with the question of conditional sampling and prediction for the class of stationary max-stable processes which allow for a mixed moving maxima representation. We develop an exact procedure for conditional sampling using…
Let $\{X_i,i=1,2,...\}$ be i.i.d. standard gaussian variables. Let $S_n=X_1+...+X_n$ be the sequence of partial sums and $$ L_n=\max_{0\leq i<j\leq n}\frac{S_j-S_i}{\sqrt{j-i}}. $$ We show that the distribution of $L_n$, appropriately…
We study efficiency of non-parametric estimation of diffusions (stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion) from long stationary trajectories. First, we introduce estimators based on conditional expectation which is…
Let $(B_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ be either a Bernoulli random walk or a Brownian motion with drift, and let $M_t:=\max\{B_s: 0\leq s\leq t\}$, $0\leq t\leq T$. This paper solves the general optimal prediction problem \sup_{0\leq\tau\leq…
This paper provides estimates for the convergence rate of the total variation distance in the framework of the Breuer-Major theorem, assuming some smoothness properties of the underlying function. The results are proved by applying new…
Given a fractional Brownian motion \,\,$(B_{t}^{H})_{t\geq 0}$,\, with Hurst parameter \,$> 1/2$\,\,we study the properties of all solutions of \,\,: {equation} X_{t}=B_{t}^{H}+\int_0^t X_{u}d\mu(u), \;\; 0\leq t\leq 1{equation} A different…
We calculate analytically the probability density $P(t_m)$ of the time $t_m$ at which a continuous-time Brownian motion (with and without drift) attains its maximum before passing through the origin for the first time. We also compute the…
The aim of this work is to estimate the drift coefficient of a fractional heat equation driven by an additive space-time noise using the Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In the first part of the paper, the first $N$ Fourier modes of the…
Logistic regression is a classical model for describing the probabilistic dependence of binary responses to multivariate covariates. We consider the predictive performance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for logistic regression,…
We study the nonparametric Nadaraya-Watson estimator of the drift function for ergodic stochastic processes driven by fractional Brownian motion of Hurst parameter H > 1/2. The estimator is based on the discretely observed stochastic…
A Markov-switching observation-driven model is a stochastic process $((S_t,Y_t))_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ where $(S_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an unobserved Markov chain on a finite set and $(Y_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an observed stochastic…
The problem is a log-asymptotics of the probability that the Integrated fractional Brownian motion of index 0<H<1 does not exceed a fixed level during long time. For the growing time interval (0,T) the hypothetical log-asymptotics is…
The movement of a particle described by Brownian motion is quantified by a single parameter, $D$, the diffusion constant. The estimation of $D$ from a discrete sequence of noisy observations is a fundamental problem in biological single…
Complex systems are characterized by a huge number of degrees of freedom often interacting in a non-linear manner. In many cases macroscopic states, however, can be characterized by a small number of order parameters that obey stochastic…
In this note, we give a short information-theoretic proof of the consistency of the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator in linear auto-regressive models. Our proof yields nearly optimal non-asymptotic rates for parameter recovery and…