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The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-09 Samuel Pawel

These notes aim at presenting an overview of Bayesian statistics, the underlying concepts and application methodology that will be useful to astronomers seeking to analyse and interpret a wide variety of data about the Universe. The level…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-01-09 Roberto Trotta

The Bayesian Block algorithm, originally developed for applications in astronomy, can be used to improve the binning of histograms in high energy physics. The visual improvement can be dramatic, as shown here with two simple examples. More…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-14 Brian Pollack , Saptaparna Bhattacharya , Michael Schmitt

We consider the problems of hypothesis testing and model comparison under a flexible Bayesian linear regression model whose formulation is closely connected with the linear mixed effect model and the parametric models for SNP set analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-24 Xiaoquan Wen

The aim of this paper, triggered by some discussions in the astrophysics community raised by astro-ph/0508529, is to introduce the issue of `fits' from a probabilistic perspective (also known as Bayesian), with special attention to the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 G. D'Agostini

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-15 David T. Frazier , David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi , Robert Kohn

Statistical analysis of DNA mixtures is known to pose computational challenges due to the enormous state space of possible DNA profiles. We propose a Bayesian network representation for genotypes, allowing computations to be performed…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-21 Therese Graversen , Steffen Lauritzen

We propose the Plaid Atoms Model (PAM), a novel Bayesian nonparametric model for grouped data. Founded on an idea of `atom skipping', PAM is part of a well-established category of models that generate dependent random distributions and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Dehua Bi , Yuan Ji

We show that model-based Bayesian clustering, the probabilistically most systematic approach to the partitioning of data, can be mapped into a statistical physics problem for a gas of particles, and as a result becomes amenable to a…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2018-10-24 Alexander Mozeika , Anthony CC Coolen

We present a Bayesian approach to machine learning with probabilistic programs. In our approach, training on available data is implemented as inference on a hierarchical model. The posterior distribution of model parameters is then used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 David Tolpin

We present a method for computing uncertainties in spectral models, i.e. level populations, line emissivities, and emission line ratios, based upon the propagation of uncertainties originating from atomic data. We provide analytic…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-12 Manuel A. Bautista , Vanessa Fivet , Pascal Quinet , Jay Dunn , Theodore R. Gull. Timothy R. Kallman , Claudio Mendoza

A generic algorithm for the extraction of probabilistic (Bayesian) information about model parameters from data is presented. The algorithm propagates an ensemble of particles in the product space of model parameters and outputs. Each…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-18 Carlo Albert

Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-15 Alejandra Estefanía Patiño Hoyos , Johnatan Cardona Jiménez

The goal of this thesis is twofold; introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference and computation focusing on astronomical and cosmological applications, and present recent advances in probabilistic computational methods developed by the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-31 Minas Karamanis

We argue here about the relevance and the ultimate unity of the Bayesian approach in a neutral and agnostic manner. Our main theme is that Bayesian data analysis is an effective tool for handling complex models, as proven by the increasing…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-03-26 Christian P. Robert

Bayesian statistics is an integral part of contemporary applied science. bayesics provides a single framework, unified in syntax and output, for performing the most commonly used statistical procedures, ranging from one- and two-sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-18 Daniel K. Sewell , Alan T. Arakkal

We consider the application of approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in the context of medical imaging data. We consider the parameter estimation of compartmental models in PET imaging analysis, and provide a simple ABC algorithm for its…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-01 Y. Fan , S. R. Meikle , G. Angelis , A. Sitek

High-throughput genetic and epigenetic data are often screened for associations with an observed phenotype. For example, one may wish to test hundreds of thousands of genetic variants, or DNA methylation sites, for an association with…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-20 Eric F. Lock , David B. Dunson

Realizing the full potential of interconnecting the large amounts of data created in physics experiments, phenomenological models and theory simulations requires robust tools for statistical inference. Here I review a particularly promising…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2019-03-07 Alexander Rothkopf

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-16 Paul Beaumont , Michael Huth