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In this paper the Bayesian analysis is applied to assign a probability density to the value of a quantity having a definite sign. This analysis is logically consistent with the results, positive or negative, of repeated measurements.…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-11-13 D Calonico , F Levi , L Lorini , G Mana

For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-09-03 Joshua Albert , Csaba Balazs , Andrew Fowlie , Will Handley , Nicholas Hunt-Smith , Roberto Ruiz de Austri , Martin White

Bayesian probability theory is used as a framework to develop a formalism for the scientific method based on principles of inductive reasoning. The formalism allows for precise definitions of the key concepts in theories of physics and also…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-09-12 Roberto C. Alamino

The experimental problem of converting a measured binomial quantity, the fraction of events in a sample that pass a cut, into a physical binomial quantity, the fraction of events originating from a signal source, is described as a system of…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 Michael L. Kelly

This paper explores Bayesian estimation for categorical data, focusing on simple yet effective models that provide a foundation for applying more advanced methods accurately and reliably in real-world applications. We begin by revisiting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Jan Kalina

Bayesian networks are a versatile and powerful tool to model complex phenomena and the interplay of their components in a probabilistically principled way. Moving beyond the comparatively simple case of completely observed, static data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-04 Marco Scutari

Finite mixtures of matrix normal distributions are a powerful tool for classifying three-way data in unsupervised problems. The distribution of each component is assumed to be a matrix variate normal density. The mixture model can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-07 Cinzia Viroli

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

Fitting the multi-wavelength spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies is a widely used technique to extract information about the physical properties of galaxies. However, a major difficulty lies in the numerous uncertainties…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2020-06-17 Yunkun Han , Zhanwen Han , Lulu Fan

The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-16 Peter Orbanz , Daniel M. Roy

The use of hierarchical mixture priors with shared atoms has recently flourished in the Bayesian literature for partially exchangeable data. Leveraging on nested levels of mixtures, these models allow the estimation of a two-layered data…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Laura D'Angelo , Francesco Denti

Due to increased awareness of data protection and corresponding laws many data, especially involving sensitive personal information, are not publicly accessible. Accordingly, many data collecting agencies only release aggregated data, e.g.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Rajbir-Singh Nirwan , Nils Bertschinger

We present a Bayesian model for estimating the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data when units are nested within groups. Such data arise frequently in social science settings, for example, people living in households. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-31 Jingchen Hu , Jerome P. Reiter , Quanli Wang

The Bayesian statistical paradigm uses the language of probability to express uncertainty about the phenomena that generate observed data. Probability distributions thus characterize Bayesian analysis, with the rules of probability used to…

Computation · Statistics 2020-12-08 Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier , Christian P. Robert

We describe a method for Bayesian optimization by which one may incorporate data from multiple systems whose quantitative interrelationships are unknown a priori. All general (nonreal-valued) features of the systems are associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-06 Steven Atkinson , Sayan Ghosh , Natarajan Chennimalai-Kumar , Genghis Khan , Liping Wang

After making some general remarks, I consider two examples that illustrate the use of Bayesian Probability Theory. The first is a simple one, the physicist's favorite "toy," that provides a forum for a discussion of the key conceptual issue…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2007-05-23 Harrison B. Prosper

In this article the issues are discussed with the Bayesian approach, least-square fits, and most-likely fits. Trying to counter these issues, a method, based on weighted confidence, is proposed for estimating probabilities and other…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-26 Fetze Pijlman

A new method is presented for the analysis of small angle neutron scattering data from quasi-2D systems such as flux lattices, Skyrmion lattices, and aligned liquid crystals. A significant increase in signal to noise ratio, and a natural…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2014-07-23 Alexander T. Holmes

Automated identification of protein conformational states from simulation of an ensemble of structures is a hard problem because it requires teaching a computer to recognize shapes. We adapt the naive Bayes classifier from the machine…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-12-02 David M. Rogers

Bayesian inference is a widely used and powerful analytical technique in fields such as astronomy and particle physics but has historically been underutilized in some other disciplines including semiconductor devices. In this work, we…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-11-28 Rachel C. Kurchin , Giuseppe Romano , Tonio Buonassisi