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Related papers: On the frequentist validity of Bayesian limits

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The work of Sprungk (Inverse Problems, 2020) established the local Lipschitz continuity of the misfit-to-posterior and prior-to-posterior maps with respect to the Kullback--Leibler divergence and the total variation, Hellinger, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Nada Cvetković , Han Cheng Lie

We present simple conditions for Bayesian consistency in the supremum metric. The key to the technique is a triangle inequality which allows us to explicitly use weak convergence, a consequence of the standard Kullback--Leibler support…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-11 Nhat Ho , Stephen G. Walker

Bayesian hypothesis tests leverage posterior probabilities, Bayes factors, or credible intervals to inform data-driven decision making. We propose a framework for power curve approximation with such hypothesis tests. We present a fast…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

In this paper, inference for the parametric component of a semiparametric model based on sampling from the posterior profile distribution is thoroughly investigated from the frequentist viewpoint. The higher-order validity of the profile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Guang Cheng , Michael R. Kosorok

The classical condition on the existence of uniformly exponentially consistent tests for testing the true density against the complement of its arbitrary neighborhood has been widely adopted in study of asymptotics of Bayesian nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-01 Yang Xing

This paper brings a contribution to the Bayesian theory of nonparametric and semiparametric estimation. We are interested in the asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution in Gaussian linear regression models when the number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Dominique Bontemps

In this paper, we study the learning rate of generalized Bayes estimators in a general setting where the hypothesis class can be uncountable and have an irregular shape, the loss function can have heavy tails, and the optimal hypothesis may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-22 Lam Si Tung Ho , Binh T. Nguyen , Vu Dinh , Duy Nguyen

We develop a representation of a decision maker's uncertainty based on e-variables. Like the Bayesian posterior, this *e-posterior* allows for making predictions against arbitrary loss functions that may not be specified ex ante. Unlike the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-20 Peter Grünwald

We review the Bayesian theory of semiparametric inference following Bickel and Kleijn (2012) and Kleijn and Knapik (2013). After an overview of efficiency in parametric and semiparametric estimation problems, we consider the Bernstein-von…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-22 B. J. K. Kleijn

We introduce a novel Bayesian estimator for the class proportion in an unlabeled dataset, based on the targeted learning framework. Our procedure requires the specification of a prior (and outputs a posterior) only for the target of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-26 Iván Díaz , Oleksander Savenkov , Hooman Kamel

We study frequentist asymptotic properties of Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional Gaussian sparse regression when unknown nuisance parameters are involved. Nuisance parameters can be finite-, high-, or infinite-dimensional. A mixture…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-18 Seonghyun Jeong , Subhashis Ghosal

The inferential model (IM) framework offers alternatives to the familiar probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian and fiducial) uncertainty quantification in statistical inference. Allowing this uncertainty quantification to be imprecise makes it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Ryan Martin , Jonathan P. Williams

$\alpha$-posteriors and their variational approximations distort standard posterior inference by downweighting the likelihood and introducing variational approximation errors. We show that such distortions, if tuned appropriately, reduce…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-20 Marco Avella Medina , José Luis Montiel Olea , Cynthia Rush , Amilcar Velez

Bayes Factors, the Bayesian tool for hypothesis testing, are receiving increasing attention in the literature. Compared to their frequentist rivals ($p$-values or test statistics), Bayes Factors have the conceptual advantage of providing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Stavros Nikolakopoulos , Björn Alfons Edmar , Ioannis Ntzoufras

It has long been known that for the comparison of pairwise nested models, a decision based on the Bayes factor produces a consistent model selector (in the frequentist sense). Here we go beyond the usual consistency for nested pairwise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-21 George Casella , F. Javier Girón , M. Lina Martínez , Elías Moreno

We study the asymptotic consistency properties of $\alpha$-R\'enyi approximate posteriors, a class of variational Bayesian methods that approximate an intractable Bayesian posterior with a member of a tractable family of distributions, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-17 Prateek Jaiswal , Vinayak A. Rao , Harsha Honnappa

We propose modified frequentist definitions for the determination of confidence intervals for the case of Poisson statistics. We require that 1-\beta^{'} \geq \sum_{n=o}^{n_{obs}+k} P(n|\lambda) \geq \alpha^{'}. We show that this definition…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-11 S. I. Bitioukov , N. V. Krasnikov

We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a multidimensional diffusion model with reflecting boundary conditions based on discrete high-frequency observations. We prove a general posterior contraction rate theorem in $L^2$-loss, which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Marc Hoffmann , Kolyan Ray

In this article, we investigate posterior convergence in nonparametric regression models where the unknown regression function is modeled by some appropriate stochastic process. In this regard, we consider two setups. The first setup is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-23 Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes , Stephen G. Walker
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