Related papers: Is Gun Violence Contagious?
The analysis of diffusion processes in real-world propagation scenarios often involves estimating variables that are not directly observed. These hidden variables include parental relationships, the strengths of connections between nodes,…
This paper introduces a measure of the diffusion of binary outcomes over a large, sparse network, when the diffusion is observed in two time periods. The measure captures the aggregated spillover effect of the state-switches in the initial…
Self-exciting point processes are widely used to model the contagious effects of crime events living within continuous geographic space, using their occurrence time and locations. However, in urban environments, most events are naturally…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
Spray characterization often relies on empirical formulas, statistical distributions, and derived quantities. Deterministic spray behavior originates from physics-governed mechanisms of atomization, \emph{e.g.}, nozzle geometry, boundary…
The spread of viruses in biological networks, computer networks, and human contact networks can have devastating effects; developing and analyzing mathematical models of these systems can be insightful and lead to societal benefits. Prior…
Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…
Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…
There is a surging need across the world for protection against gun violence. There are three main areas that we have identified as challenging in research that tries to curb gun violence: temporal location of gunshots, gun type prediction…
Motivated by the spread of opinions on different social networks, we study a distributed continuous-time bi-virus model for a system of groups of individuals. An in-depth stability analysis is performed for more general models than have…
Containing the spreading of crime is a major challenge for society. Yet, since thousands of years, no effective strategy has been found to overcome crime. To the contrary, empirical evidence shows that crime is recurrent, a fact that is not…
We study the one-dimensional diffusion process which takes place between two reflecting boundaries and which is acted upon by a time-dependent and spatially-constant force. The assumed force possesses both the harmonically oscillating and…
Interactions between commuting individuals can lead to large-scale spreading of rumors, ideas, or disease, even though the commuters have no net displacement. The emergent dynamics depend crucially on the commuting distribution of a…
Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…
In this paper, I study epidemic diffusion in a generalized spatial SEIRD model, where individuals are initially connected in a social or geographical network. As the virus spreads in the network, the structure of interactions between people…
This paper studies a distributed continuous-time bi-virus model in which two competing viruses spread over a network consisting of multiple groups of individuals. Limiting behaviors of the network are characterized by analyzing the…
Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…
The problem of change-point estimation is considered under a general framework where the data are generated by unknown stationary ergodic process distributions. In this context, the consistent estimation of the number of change-points is…
Armed conflict exhibits regularities beyond known power law distributions of fatalities and duration over varying culture and geography. We systematically cluster conflict reports from a database of $10^5$ events from Africa spanning 20…
Nonlinear reaction-diffusion systems admit a wide variety of spatiotemporal patterns or structures. In this lecture, we point out that there is certain advantage in studying discrete arrays, namely cellular neural/nonlinear networks (CNNs),…