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Exponential family random graph models (ERGMs) can be understood in terms of a set of structural biases that act on an underlying reference distribution. This distribution determines many aspects of the behavior and interpretation of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Carter T. Butts

Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Tobias Brock , Thomas Nagler

Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 M. Chung , M. Binois , R. B. Gramacy , D. J. Moquin , A. P. Smith , A. M. Smith

Adaptive dynamical systems arise in a multitude of contexts, e.g., optimization, control, communications, signal processing, and machine learning. A precise characterization of their fundamental limitations is therefore of paramount…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-10-13 Maxim Raginsky

The theoretical and empirical performance of Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) often suffers when loss functions are poorly behaved with large Lipschitz moduli and spurious sharp minimizers. We propose and analyze a counterpart to ERM…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-08 Matthew Norton , Johannes O. Royset

Rates of convergence for empirical risk minimizers have been well studied in the literature. In this paper, we aim to provide a complementary set of results, in particular by showing that after normalization, the risk of the empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-12 Sara van de Geer , Martin Wainwright

The dynamics of biological systems, from proteins to cells to organisms, is complex and stochastic. To decipher their physical laws, we need to bridge between experimental observations and theoretical modeling. Thanks to progress in…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2024-06-05 Pierre Ronceray

The simulation of complex stochastic network dynamics arising, for instance, from models of coupled biomolecular processes remains computationally challenging. Often, the necessity to scan a models' dynamics over a large parameter space…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2013-03-14 Tiago Ramalho , Marco Selig , Ulrich Gerland , Torsten A. Enßlin

Constructing numerical models of noisy partial differential equations is very delicate. Our long term aim is to use modern dynamical systems theory to derive discretisations of dissipative stochastic partial differential equations. As a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 A. J. Roberts

Recently, invariant risk minimization (IRM) was proposed as a promising solution to address out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. However, it is unclear when IRM should be preferred over the widely-employed empirical risk minimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-22 Kartik Ahuja , Jun Wang , Amit Dhurandhar , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Kush R. Varshney

We study individual-based dynamics in finite populations, subject to randomly switching environmental conditions. These are inspired by models in which genes transition between on and off states, regulating underlying protein dynamics.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-05-18 Peter G. Hufton , Yen Ting Lin , Tobias Galla , Alan J. McKane

Dynamical sampling deals with signals that evolve in time under the action of a linear operator. The purpose of the present paper is to analyze the performance of the basic dynamical sampling algorithms in the finite dimensional case and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Akram Aldroubi , Longxiu Huang , Ilya Krishtal , Akos Ledeczi , Roy R. Lederman , Peter Volgyesi

Selecting the best regularization parameter in inverse problems is a classical and yet challenging problem. Recently, data-driven approaches have become popular to tackle this challenge. These approaches are appealing since they do require…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Jonathan Chirinos Rodriguez , Ernesto De Vito , Cesare Molinari , Lorenzo Rosasco , Silvia Villa

This work explores the trade-off between the number of samples required to accurately build models of dynamical systems and the degradation of performance in various control objectives due to a coarse approximation. In particular, we show…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-12-01 Stephen Tu , Ross Boczar , Andrew Packard , Benjamin Recht

This work considers the problem of binary classification: given training data $x_1, \dots, x_n$ from a certain population, together with associated labels $y_1,\dots, y_n \in \left\{0,1 \right\}$, determine the best label for an element $x$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-04 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Ryan Murray

The theory of slow manifolds is an important tool in the study of deterministic dynamical systems, giving a practical method by which to reduce the number of relevant degrees of freedom in a model, thereby often resulting in a considerable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-07-01 George W A Constable , Alan J McKane , Tim Rogers

We consider the dynamics of an arbitrary quantum system coupled to a large arbitrary and fully quantum mechanical environment through a random interaction. We establish analytically and check numerically the typicality of this dynamics, in…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-07-26 Grégoire Ithier , Florent Benaych-Georges

Data-driven, model-free analytics are natural choices for discovery and forecasting of complex, nonlinear systems. Methods that operate in the system state-space require either an explicit multidimensional state-space, or, one approximated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-15 Joseph Park , Gerald M Pao , Erik Stabenau , George Sugihara , Thomas Lorimer

We establish weak limits for the empirical entropy regularized optimal transport cost, the expectation of the empirical plan and the conditional expectation. Our results require only uniform boundedness of the cost function and no…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-18 Alberto González-Sanz , Shayan Hundrieser

Stochastic compartmental models are prevalent tools for describing disease spread, but inference under these models is challenging for many types of surveillance data when the marginal likelihood function becomes intractable due to missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Suchismita Roy , Alexander A. Fisher , Jason Xu