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We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-15 Alexander Zimin , Christoph H. Lampert

Obtaining guarantees on the convergence of the minimizers of empirical risks to the ones of the true risk is a fundamental matter in statistical learning. Instead of deriving guarantees on the usual estimation error, the goal of this paper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Paul Escande

A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-04-11 Lewis Mitchell , Georg A. Gottwald

We derive bounds on the sample complexity of empirical risk minimization (ERM) in the context of minimizing non-convex risks that admit the strict saddle property. Recent progress in non-convex optimization has yielded efficient algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-06 Alon Gonen , Shai Shalev-Shwartz

A dynamical system may be defined by a simple transition law - such as a map or a vector field. The objective of most learning techniques is to reconstruct this dynamic transition law. This is a major shortcoming, as most dynamic properties…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-09-10 Suddhasattwa Das

The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Roshni Sahoo , Lihua Lei , Stefan Wager

We study estimation of a multivariate function $f:\mathbf{R}^d\to\mathbf{R}$ when the observations are available from the function $Af$, where $A$ is a known linear operator. Both the Gaussian white noise model and density estimation are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-14 Jussi Klemelä , Enno Mammen

We study the problem of empirical minimization for variance-type functionals over functional classes. Sharp non-asymptotic bounds for the excess variance are derived under mild conditions. In particular, it is shown that under some…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-03 D. Belomestny , L. Iosipoi , Q. Paris , N. Zhivotovskiy

The minimum entropy production principle provides an approximative variational characterization of close-to-equilibrium stationary states, both for macroscopic systems and for stochastic models. Analyzing the fluctuations of the empirical…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-05 C. Maes , K. Netocny

In this work we investigate to which extent one can recover class probabilities within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) paradigm. The main aim of our paper is to extend existing results and emphasize the tight relations between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Alexander Mey , Marco Loog

Risk-sensitive control balances performance with resilience to unlikely events in uncertain systems. This paper introduces ergodic-risk criteria, which capture long-term cumulative risks through probabilistic limit theorems. By ensuring the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Shahriar Talebi , Na Li

We study estimation of a multivariate function $f:{\bf R}^d \to {\bf R}$ when the observations are available from function $Af$, where $A$ is a known linear operator. Both the Gaussian white noise model and density estimation are studied.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-21 Jussi Klemelä , Enno Mammen

The field of complex networks studies a wide variety of interacting systems by representing them as networks. To understand their properties and mutual relations, the randomisation of network connections is a commonly used tool. However,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-10-18 Noam Abadi , Franco Ruzzenenti

Given a collection of feature maps indexed by a set $\mathcal{T}$, we study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) on regression problems with square loss over the union of the linear classes induced by these feature maps.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-20 Ayoub El Hanchi , Chris J. Maddison , Murat A. Erdogdu

The empirical risk minimization (ERM) problem with relative entropy regularization (ERM-RER) is investigated under the assumption that the reference measure is a $\sigma$-finite measure, and not necessarily a probability measure. Under this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Samir M. Perlaza , Gaetan Bisson , Iñaki Esnaola , Alain Jean-Marie , Stefano Rini

Empirical risk minimization stands behind most optimization in supervised machine learning. Under this scheme, labeled data is used to approximate an expected cost (risk), and a learning algorithm updates model-defining parameters in search…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-25 James Schmidt

Natural and social multivariate systems are commonly studied through sets of simultaneous and time-spaced measurements of the observables that drive their dynamics, i.e., through sets of time series. Typically, this is done via hypothesis…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-01 Riccardo Marcaccioli , Giacomo Livan

We study weak convergence of empirical processes of dependent data $(X_i)_{i\geq0}$, indexed by classes of functions. Our results are especially suitable for data arising from dynamical systems and Markov chains, where the central limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-07 Herold Dehling , Olivier Durieu , Marco Tusche

Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are, however, difficult to characterize. Here, we…

Entropy integrals are widely used as a powerful empirical process tool to obtain upper bounds for the rates of convergence of global empirical risk minimizers (ERMs), in standard settings such as density estimation and regression. The upper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-08 Qiyang Han