Related papers: Limit theorems for weighted and regular Multilevel…
Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…
Partial differential equation is a powerful tool to characterize various physics systems. In practice, measurement errors are often present and probability models are employed to account for such uncertainties. In this paper, we present a…
Monte Carlo methods play important part in modern statistical physics. The application of these methods suffer from two main difficulties.The first is caused by the relatively small number of particles that can participate in any numerical…
Relative error estimation has been recently used in regression analysis. A crucial issue of the existing relative error estimation procedures is that they are sensitive to outliers. To address this issue, we employ the $\gamma$-likelihood…
The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…
We present two Monte Carlo sampling algorithms for probabilistic inference that guarantee polynomial-time convergence for a larger class of network than current sampling algorithms provide. These new methods are variants of the known…
In this paper, we design $MC^2$ algorithms for Mixed Integer and Linear Programming. By expressing a constrained optimisation as one of simulation from a Boltzmann distribution, we reformulate integer and linear programming as Monte Carlo…
In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…
In linear regression, the least squares (LS) estimator has certain optimality properties if the errors are normally distributed. This assumption is often violated in practice, partly caused by data outliers. Robust estimators can cope with…
Quantitative multivariate central limit theorems for general functionals of possibly non-symmetric and non-homogeneous infinite Rademacher sequences are proved by combining discrete Malliavin calculus with the smart path method for normal…
We present general principles for the design and analysis of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators in a wide range of settings. Our estimators posses finite work-normalized variance under mild regularity conditions. We apply our estimators to…
We prove a central limit theorem for a general class of adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms driven by sub-geometrically ergodic Markov kernels. We discuss in detail the special case of stochastic approximation. We use the result to…
We study estimation of a multivariate function $f:\mathbf{R}^d\to\mathbf{R}$ when the observations are available from the function $Af$, where $A$ is a known linear operator. Both the Gaussian white noise model and density estimation are…
In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice,…
Computing risk measures of a financial portfolio comprising thousands of derivatives is a challenging problem because (a) it involves a nested expectation requiring multiple evaluations of the loss of the financial portfolio for different…
We study the convergence rate of discretized Riemannian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on sampling from distributions in the form of $e^{-f(x)}$ on a convex body $\mathcal{M}\subset\mathbb{R}^{n}$. We show that for distributions in the form of…
Let $\mu\in \mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb R^d)$, where $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb R^d)$ denotes the space of square integrable probability measures, and consider a Borel-measurable function $\Phi:\mathcal P_2(\mathbb R^d)\rightarrow \mathbb R $. IIn…
In this work, we extend the hybrid Chernoff tau-leap method to the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) setting. Inspired by the work of Anderson and Higham on the tau-leap MLMC method with uniform time steps, we develop a novel algorithm that is…
This paper introduces a new class of robust estimates for ARMA models. They are M-estimates, but the residuals are computed so the effect of one outlier is limited to the period where it occurs. These estimates are closely related to those…
I discuss optimized data analysis and Monte Carlo methods. Reweighting methods are discussed through examples, like Lee-Yang zeroes in the Ising model and the absence of deconfinement in QCD. I discuss reweighted data analysis and…