Related papers: Multinomial VaR Backtests: A simple implicit appro…

In this paper, we investigate risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and the conditional tail expectation (CTE) of the extreme (maximum and minimum) and the aggregate (total) of two dependent risks. In finance, insurance and the other…

Generally, in the financial literature, the notion of quadratic VaR is implicitly confused with the Delta-Gamma VaR, because more authors dealt with portfolios that contains derivatives instruments. In this paper, we postpone to estimate…

While mixture of linear regressions (MLR) is a well-studied topic, prior works usually do not analyze such models for prediction error. In fact, {\em prediction} and {\em loss} are not well-defined in the context of mixtures. In this paper,…

This paper addresses a multi-label predictive fault classification problem for multidimensional time-series data. While fault (event) detection problems have been thoroughly studied in literature, most of the state-of-the-art techniques…

Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…

Designing profitable and reliable trading strategies is challenging in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Existing works applied deep reinforcement learning methods and optimistically reported increased profits in backtesting, which…

Minimum Bayes risk (MBR) decoding is a decision rule of text generation tasks that outperforms conventional maximum a posterior (MAP) decoding using beam search by selecting high-quality outputs based on a utility function rather than those…

Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…

We study issues of robustness in the context of Quantitative Risk Management and Optimization. We develop a general methodology for determining whether a given risk measurement related optimization problem is robust, which we call…

The state-of-the-art performance on entity resolution (ER) has been achieved by deep learning. However, deep models are usually trained on large quantities of accurately labeled training data, and can not be easily tuned towards a target…

Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is…

In ML-aided decision-making tasks, such as fraud detection or medical diagnosis, the human-in-the-loop, usually a domain-expert without technical ML knowledge, prefers high-level concept-based explanations instead of low-level explanations…

Motivated by the equations of cross valuation adjustments (XVAs) in the realistic case where capital is deemed fungible as a source of funding for variation margin, we introduce a simulation/regression scheme for a class of anticipated…

We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…

There are various metrics for financial risk, such as value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, expected/unexpected loss, etc. When estimating these metrics, it was very common to assume Gaussian distribution for the asset returns, which may…

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting is a fundamental task with numerous real-world applications, such as transportation, climate, and epidemiology. While a myriad of powerful deep learning models have been developed for this task,…

Under Solvency II, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) is applied, although there is broad consensus that the Expected Shortfall (ES) constitutes a more appropriate risk measure. Moving towards ES would necessitate specifying the corresponding ES…

The purpose of this paper is to describe and extend the use of the newly-introduced measure, residual estimation risk. Following the seminal work of Bignozzi and Tsanakas, the quantification of residual estimation risk is proposed in a…

In light of the inherently complex and dynamic nature of real-world environments, incorporating risk measures is crucial for the robustness evaluation of deep learning models. In this work, we propose a Risk-Averse Certification framework…

This paper proposes an active model-based fault and failure tolerant control scheme for a class of marine vehicles with thruster redundancy. Unlike widely used state and parameter estimation methods, where the estimation errors are utilized…