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Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting…
Electronic health records (EHRs) contain structured and unstructured data of significant clinical and research value. Various machine learning approaches have been developed to employ information in EHRs for risk prediction. The majority of…
The majority of studies in the field of AI guided financial trading focus on purely applying machine learning algorithms to continuous historical price and technical analysis data. However, due to non-stationary and high volatile nature of…
In the property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry, reserves comprise most of a company's liabilities. These reserves are the best estimates made by actuaries for future unpaid claims. Notably, reserves for different lines of business…
We introduce $\textbf{Slippage-at-Risk (SaR)}$, a quantitative framework for measuring liquidity risk in perpetual futures exchanges. Unlike backward-looking metrics such as Value-at-Risk computed on historical returns or realized deficit…
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss…
This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting…
With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed…
We study submodularity for law-invariant functionals, with particular attention to convex risk measures. Expected losses are modular, and certainty equivalents are submodular exactly when the loss function is convex. Law-invariant coherent…
Prediction of post-loan default is an important task in credit risk management, and can be addressed by detection of financial anomalies using machine learning. This study introduces a ResE-BiLSTM model, using a sliding window technique,…
This paper aims to more effectively manage and mitigate stock market risks by accurately characterizing financial market returns and volatility. We enhance the Stochastic Volatility (SV) model by incorporating fat-tailed distributions and…
The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…
We show that shortfall risks of American options in a sequence of multinomial approximations of the multidimensional Black--Scholes (BS) market converge to the corresponding quantities for similar American options in the multidimensional BS…
Multi-agent learning is a promising method to simulate aggregate competitive behaviour in finance. Learning expert agents' reward functions through their external demonstrations is hence particularly relevant for subsequent design of…
Machine-learning-based entity resolution has been widely studied. However, some entity pairs may be mislabeled by machine learning models and existing studies do not study the risk analysis problem -- predicting and interpreting which…
We study the fixed-confidence best arm identification (BAI) problem within the multi-armed bandit (MAB) framework under the Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR) criterion. Our analysis considers a nonparametric setting, allowing for general reward…
Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…
In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is…
In this paper, we propose a new metric to measure goodness-of-fit for classifiers, the Real World Cost function. This metric factors in information about a real world problem, such as financial impact, that other measures like accuracy or…
Advances in Reinforcement Learning (RL) span a wide variety of applications which motivate development in this area. While application tasks serve as suitable benchmarks for real world problems, RL is seldomly used in practical scenarios…