Related papers: Coupled, multi-strain epidemic models of mutating …
Augmenting classical epidemiological models with information from the social sciences helps unveil the interplay between contagion dynamics and social responses. However, multidisciplinary integration of social analysis and epidemiological…
We consider a stochastic epidemic model with sideward contact tracing. We assume that infection is driven by interactions within mixing events (gatherings of two or more individuals). Once an infective is diagnosed, each individual who was…
Multi-strain pathogens such as Group A Streptococcus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Staphylococcus aureus cause millions of infections each year with a substantial health burden. Control of multi-strain pathogens can be complicated by the…
We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…
The compartmental models used to study epidemic spreading often assume the same susceptibility for all individuals, and are therefore, agnostic about the effects that differences in susceptibility can have on epidemic spreading. Here we…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
The importation and subsequent establishment of novel pathogenic strains in a population is subject to a large degree of uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the disease dynamics. Mathematical models need to take this stochasticity…
The statistics of outbreaks in a model for the propagation of meningococcal diseases is analyzed, taking into account the possibility that the population is fragmented into weakly connected patches. It is shown that, depending on the size…
We study a well mixed SIR epidemic model with heterogeneous susceptibility and infectivity, allowing for an arbitrary joint distribution of these traits. Using an exact final size formulation and a branching process approximation for early…
Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model…
We describe a new family of coupling designs, extending the basic principle of stratified randomization to experiments with continuous, constrained multivariate, text/image and other irregular treatment spaces. Our approach is to first…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of…
Multi-strain competition on networks is observed in many contexts, including infectious disease ecology, information dissemination or behavioral adaptation to epidemics. Despite a substantial body of research has been developed considering…
During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…
The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
Most infectious diseases including more than half of known human pathogens are not restricted to just one host, yet much of the mathematical modeling of infections has been limited to a single species. We investigate consequences of a…
The spreading of infectious diseases with and without immunization of individuals can be modeled by stochastic processes that exhibit a transition between an active phase of epidemic spreading and an absorbing phase, where the disease dies…
Deterministic compartmental models have been used extensively in modeling epidemic propagation. These models are required to fit available data and numerical procedures are often implemented to this end. But not every model architecture is…