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We introduce a novel covariance estimator for portfolio selection that adapts to the non-stationary or persistent heteroskedastic environments of financial time series by employing exponentially weighted averages and nonlinearly shrinking…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-23 Vincent Tan , Stefan Zohren

In this paper we construct a shrinkage estimator of the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio by a combination of two techniques: Tikhonov regularization and direct shrinkage of portfolio weights. More specifically, we employ a double…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-08 Taras Bodnar , Nestor Parolya , Erik Thorsén

This paper studies the portfolio optimization problem when the investor's utility is general and the return and volatility of the risky asset are fast mean-reverting, which are important to capture the fast-time scale in the modeling of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-31 Ruimeng Hu

We study shrinkage estimation of the mean parameters of a class of multivariate distributions for which the diagonal entries of the corresponding covariance matrix are certain quadratic functions of the mean parameter. This class of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Nikolas Siapoutis , Donald Richards , Bharath K. Sriperumbudur

This paper focuses on investigating Stein's invariant shrinkage estimators for large sample covariance matrices and precision matrices in high-dimensional settings. We consider models that have nearly arbitrary population covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-24 Xiucai Ding , Yun Li , Fan Yang

We study general singular value shrinkage estimators in high-dimensional regression and classification, when the number of features and the sample size both grow proportionally to infinity. We allow models with general covariance matrices…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-01 Panagiotis Lolas

In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the main characteristics of the mean-variance efficient frontier employing random matrix theory. Our particular interest covers the case when the dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-24 Taras Bodnar , Nikolaus Hautsch , Yarema Okhrin , Nestor Parolya

This paper introduces a neural network-based nonlinear shrinkage estimator of covariance matrices for the purpose of minimum variance portfolio optimization. It is a hybrid approach that integrates statistical estimation with machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Liusha Yang , Siqi Zhao , Shuqi Chai

We propose a novel portfolio selection approach that manages to ease some of the problems that characterise standard expected utility maximisation. The optimal portfolio is no longer defined as the extremum of a suitably chosen utility…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-09-29 P. Rossi , M. Tavoni , F. Cocco , R. Marschinski

We address high dimensional covariance estimation for elliptical distributed samples, which are also known as spherically invariant random vectors (SIRV) or compound-Gaussian processes. Specifically we consider shrinkage methods that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-20 Yilun Chen , Ami Wiesel , Alfred O. Hero

Many statistical applications require an estimate of a covariance matrix and/or its inverse. When the matrix dimension is large compared to the sample size, which happens frequently, the sample covariance matrix is known to perform poorly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Olivier Ledoit , Michael Wolf

We derive an optimal shrinkage sample covariance matrix (SCM) estimator which is suitable for high dimensional problems and when sampling from an unspecified elliptically symmetric distribution. Specifically, we derive the optimal (oracle)…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-03 Esa Ollila

In portfolio risk minimization, the inverse covariance matrix of returns is often unknown and has to be estimated in practice. This inverse covariance matrix also prescribes the hedge trades in which a stock is hedged by all the other…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-15 Lim Hao Shen Keith

This paper presents how the most recent improvements made on covariance matrix estimation and model order selection can be applied to the portfolio optimisation problem. The particular case of the Maximum Variety Portfolio is treated but…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-03 Emmanuelle Jay , Eugénie Terreaux , Jean-Philippe Ovarlez , Frédéric Pascal

Mean-variance analysis is widely used in portfolio management to identify the best portfolio that makes an optimal trade-off between expected return and volatility. Yet, this method has its limitations, notably its vulnerability to…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-27 Kwong Yu Chong

We introduce a distributionally robust maximum likelihood estimation model with a Wasserstein ambiguity set to infer the inverse covariance matrix of a $p$-dimensional Gaussian random vector from $n$ independent samples. The proposed model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-21 Viet Anh Nguyen , Daniel Kuhn , Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani

This paper investigates the large sample properties of the variance, weights, and risk of high-dimensional portfolios where the inverse of the covariance matrix of excess asset returns is estimated using a technique called nodewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-16 Laurent Callot , Mehmet Caner , Esra Ulasan , A. Özlem Önder

In large-scale, data-driven applications, parameters are often only known approximately due to noise and limited data samples. In this paper, we focus on high-dimensional optimization problems with linear constraints under uncertain…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-01 Naqi Huang , Nestor Parolya , Theresia van Essen

Portfolio optimization requires sophisticated covariance estimators that are able to filter out estimation noise. Non-linear shrinkage is a popular estimator based on how the Oracle eigenvalues can be computed using only data from the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-14 Christian Bongiorno , Damien Challet

The state-of-the-art methods for estimating high-dimensional covariance matrices all shrink the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix towards a data-insensitive shrinkage target. The underlying shrinkage transformation is either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Man-Chung Yue , Yves Rychener , Daniel Kuhn , Viet Anh Nguyen