Related papers: Portmanteau Tests for ARMA Models with Infinite Va…

Change point analysis has become an important research topic in many fields of applications. Several research work has been carried out to detect changes and its locations in time series data. In this paper, a nonparametric method based on…

In practice, several time series exhibit long-range dependence or persistence in their observations, leading to the development of a number of estimation and prediction methodologies to account for the slowly decaying autocorrelations. The…

Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a…

A wide range of approaches for batch processes monitoring can be found in the literature. This kind of process generates a very peculiar data structure, in which successive measurements of many process variables in each batch run are…

Monte Carlo integration becomes prohibitively expensive when each sample requires a high-fidelity model evaluation. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification methods mitigate this by combining estimators from high- and low-fidelity models,…

The volatility modeling for autoregressive univariate time series is considered. A benchmark approach is the stationary ARCH model of Engle (1982). Motivated by real data evidence, processes with non constant unconditional variance and ARCH…

In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…

We compare two theoretically distinct approaches to generating artificial (or ``surrogate'') data for testing hypotheses about a given data set. The first and more straightforward approach is to fit a single ``best'' model to the original…

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

We consider the issue of performing accurate small sample inference in beta autoregressive moving average model, which is useful for modeling and forecasting continuous variables that assumes values in the interval $(0,1)$. The inferences…

In this paper we discuss dynamic ARMA-type regression models for time series taking values in $(0,\infty)$. In the proposed model, the conditional mean is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms,…

This article presents an algorithm that generates a conservative confidence interval of a specified length and coverage probability for the power of a Monte Carlo test (such as a bootstrap or permutation test). It is the first method that…

We consider the strongly consistent question for model selection in a large class of causal time series models, including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$), ARMA-GARCH and many classical others processes. We propose a penalized…

We address the problem of defining early warning indicators of critical transition. To this purpose, we fit the relevant time series through a class of linear models, known as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA(p,q)) models. We define two…

Transformed Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average (TGARMA) models were recently proposed to deal with non-additivity, non-normality and heteroscedasticity in real time series data. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is proposed for…

We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…

We engineer a new probabilistic Monte-Carlo algorithm for isomorphism testing. Most notably, as opposed to all other solvers, it implicitly exploits the presence of symmetries without explicitly computing them. We provide extensive…

Estimation in GARMA models has traditionally been carried out under the frequentist approach. To date, Bayesian approaches for such estimation have been relatively limited. In the context of GARMA models for count time series, Bayesian…

The Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is fundamental to the theory of multivariate time series; however, identifiability issues have led practitioners to abandon it in favor of the simpler but more restrictive Vector…

We introduce the anytime-valid (AV) logrank test, a version of the logrank test that provides type-I error guarantees under optional stopping and optional continuation. The test is sequential without the need to specify a maximum sample…