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Nonstationarity of real-life time series requires model adaptation. In classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH there is assumed some arbitrarily chosen dependence type. To avoid their bias, we will focus on novel more agnostic approach: moving…

We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…

In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…

We study time-uniform statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation (SA), which encompasses a bunch of applications in optimization and machine learning. To that end, we analyze the almost-sure convergence rates of the…

This paper analyzes identifiability properties of structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models driven by independent and non-Gaussian shocks. It is well known, that SVARMA models driven by Gaussian errors are not…

Estimation of autocorrelations and spectral densities is of fundamental importance in many fields of science, from identifying pulsar signals in astronomy to measuring heart beats in medicine. In circumstances where one is interested in…

We propose a specification test for conditional location--scale models based on extremal dependence properties of the standardized residuals. We do so comparing the left-over serial extremal dependence -- as measured by the pre-asymptotic…

Quantum mechanics for many-body systems may be reduced to the evaluation of integrals in 3N dimensions using Monte-Carlo, providing the Quantum Monte Carlo ab initio methods. Here we limit ourselves to expectation values for trial…

We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA we show that…

This paper examines the use of Monte Carlo simulations to understand statistical concepts in A/B testing and Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). We discuss the applicability of simulations in understanding false positive rates and estimate…

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the…

There is a long-standing debate in the statistical, epidemiological and econometric fields as to whether nonparametric estimation that uses data-adaptive methods, like machine learning algorithms in model fitting, confer any meaningful…

We propose a panel ARMA-GARCH model to capture the dynamics of large panel data with $N$ individuals over $T$ time periods. For this model, we provide a two-step estimation procedure to estimate the ARMA parameters and GARCH parameters…

Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less…

Probabilistic timed automata (PTAs) are timed automata (TAs) extended with discrete probability distributions.They serve as a mathematical model for a wide range of applications that involve both stochastic and timed behaviours. In this…

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…

This paper studies the problem of testing whether a system of linear equality and inequality constraints admits a solution when the coefficients of that system may have to be estimated. We show that a wide range of inferential questions in…

This article develops the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator of the model parameters in periodicvector autoregressive time series models (hereafter PVAR) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations. When theinnovations…

Numerical models are increasingly used for non-invasive diagnosis and treatment planning in coronary artery disease, where service-based technologies have proven successful in identifying hemodynamically significant and hence potentially…

We study the problem of robust time series analysis under the standard auto-regressive (AR) time series model in the presence of arbitrary outliers. We devise an efficient hard thresholding based algorithm which can obtain a consistent…