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We present a weighted version of Leave-One-Out (LOO) cross-validation for estimating the Integrated Squared Error (ISE) when approximating an unknown function by a predictor that depends linearly on evaluations of the function over a finite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-27 Luc Pronzato , Maria-João Rendas

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are methods for estimating pointwise out-of-sample prediction accuracy from a fitted Bayesian model using the log-likelihood evaluated at the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-18 Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman , Jonah Gabry

Given a high-dimensional covariate matrix and a response vector, ridge-regularized sparse linear regression selects a subset of features that explains the relationship between covariates and the response in an interpretable manner. To…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-13 Ryan Cory-Wright , Andrés Gómez

A natural method for approximating out-of-sample predictive evaluation is leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) --- we alternately hold out each case from a full data set and then train a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-28 Longhai Li , Shi Qiu , Bei Zhang , Cindy X. Feng

In this paper we provide insight into the empirical properties of indirect cross-validation (ICV), a new method of bandwidth selection for kernel density estimators. First, we describe the method and report on the theoretical results used…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-12-02 Olga Y. Savchuk , Jeffrey D. Hart , Simon J. Sheather

Variance estimation is a fundamental problem in statistical modeling. In ultrahigh dimensional linear regressions where the dimensionality is much larger than sample size, traditional variance estimation techniques are not applicable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-27 Jianqing Fan , Shaojun Guo , Ning Hao

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for subagged estimators, both for classification and regressor. General loss functions and class of predictors with both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-11-24 Matthieu CORNEC

Probabilistic regression models typically use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Cross-Validation to fit parameters. These methods can give an advantage to the solutions that fit observations on average, but they do not pay attention to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-24 Naoufal Acharki , Antoine Bertoncello , Josselin Garnier

Machine learning enables systems to build and update domain models based on runtime observations. In this paper, we study statistical model checking and runtime verification for systems with this ability. Two challenges arise: (1) Models…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2017-03-01 Lenz Belzner , Thomas Gabor

An important question in constructing Cross Validation (CV) estimators of the generalization error is whether rules can be established that allow "optimal" selection of the size of the training set, for fixed sample size $n$. We define the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-11 Georgios Afendras , Marianthi Markatou

Machine learning technologies have been used in a wide range of practical systems. In practical situations, it is natural to expect the input-output pairs of a machine learning model to satisfy some requirements. However, it is difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Masaaki Nishino , Kengo Nakamura , Norihito Yasuda

Standard techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) might not be suitable for evaluating the predictive performance of models incorporating structured random effects. In such cases, the correlation between the training and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 A. Adin , E. Krainski , A. Lenzi , Z. Liu , J. Martínez-Minaya , H. Rue

We study the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation in the high dimensional regime where both the sample size $n$ and number of features $p$ are large, and $n/p$ can be less than one. Extensive empirical evidence confirms the accuracy of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-05 Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Wenda Zhou , Arian Maleki

Despite ongoing theoretical research on cross-validation (CV), many theoretical questions remain widely open. This motivates our investigation into how properties of algorithm-distribution pairs can affect the choice for the number of folds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-09 Ido Nachum , Rüdiger Urbanke , Thomas Weinberger

In this article, we rigorously establish the consistency of generalized cross-validation as a parameter-choice rule for solving inverse problems. We prove that the index chosen by leave-one-out GCV achieves a non-asymptotic, order-optimal…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-18 Tim Jahn , Mikhail Kirilin

Two key tasks in high-dimensional regularized regression are tuning the regularization strength for accurate predictions and estimating the out-of-sample risk. It is known that the standard approach -- $k$-fold cross-validation -- is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-24 Kevin Luo , Yufan Li , Pragya Sur

In supervised learning, the estimation of prediction error on unlabeled test data is an important task. Existing methods are usually built on the assumption that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution, which is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-30 Hui Xu , Robert Tibshirani

This paper addresses feature subset selection for Support Vector Machines (SVMs) based on the cross-validation criterion. Unlike statistical criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Masaharu Mori , Shunnosuke Ikeda , Ryuta Tamura , Yuichi Takano , Ryuhei Miyashiro

When selecting a classification algorithm to be applied to a particular problem, one has to simultaneously select the best algorithm for that dataset \emph{and} the best set of hyperparameters for the chosen model. The usual approach is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-26 Jacques Wainer , Gavin Cawley

We propose a variational Bayesian (VB) procedure for high-dimensional linear model inferences with heavy tail shrinkage priors, such as student-t prior. Theoretically, we establish the consistency of the proposed VB method and prove that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Jincheng Bai , Qifan Song , Guang Cheng