Related papers: Simultaneous Credible Regions for Multiple Changep…
Credible intervals and credible sets, such as highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, form an integral statistical tool in Bayesian phylogenetics, both for phylogenetic analyses and for development. Readily available for continuous…
When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…
We study the problem of detecting change points (CPs) that are characterized by a subset of dimensions in a multi-dimensional sequence. A method for detecting those CPs can be formulated as a two-stage method: one for selecting relevant…
In this paper, we study statistical inference of change-points (CPs) in multi-dimensional sequence. In CP detection from a multi-dimensional sequence, it is often desirable not only to detect the location, but also to identify the subset of…
Posterior predictive p-values (ppps) have become popular tools for Bayesian model assessment, being general-purpose and easy to use. However, interpretation can be difficult because their distribution is not uniform under the hypothesis…
Changepoint localization is the problem of estimating the index at which a change occurred in the data generating distribution of an ordered list of data, or declaring that no change occurred. We present the broadly applicable MCP…
The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with applications across a wide variety of fields. In bioinformatics, a vast amount of methodology exists to identify an ideal set of change-points for…
Computing size and credibility of Bayesian credible regions for certifying the reliability of any point estimator of an unknown parameter (such as a quantum state, channel, phase, \emph{etc.}) relies on rejection sampling from the entire…
Conformal prediction (CP) generates a set of predictions for a given test sample such that the prediction set almost always contains the true label (e.g., 99.5\% of the time). CP provides comprehensive predictions on possible labels of a…
There are many different ways in which change point analysis can be performed, from purely parametric methods to those that are distribution free. The ecp package is designed to perform multiple change point analysis while making as few…
In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…
We show that the two-stage minimum description length (MDL) criterion widely used to estimate linear change-point (CP) models corresponds to the marginal likelihood of a Bayesian model with a specific class of prior distributions. This…
In segmentation problems, inference on change-point position and model selection are two difficult issues due to the discrete nature of change-points. In a Bayesian context, we derive exact, non-asymptotic, explicit and tractable formulae…
We present a simple way to learn a transformation that maps samples of one distribution to the samples of another distribution. Our algorithm comprises an iteration of 1) drawing samples from some simple distribution and transforming them…
Simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for percentiles in linear regression are valuable tools with many applications. In this paper, we propose a novel criterion for comparing SCBs for percentiles, termed the Minimum Area Confidence Set…
This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…
Recent likelihood theory produces $p$-values that have remarkable accuracy and wide applicability. The calculations use familiar tools such as maximum likelihood values (MLEs), observed information and parameter rescaling. The usual…
For estimating the proportion of false null hypotheses in multiple testing, a family of estimators by Storey (2002) is widely used in the applied and statistical literature, with many methods suggested for selecting the parameter $\lambda$.…
Conformal prediction (CP) produces prediction regions with finite-sample, distribution free coverage guarantees, but its interpretation as a quantitative uncertainty tool is often left implicit. We develop a category-theoretic approach that…
Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…