Related papers: Simultaneous Credible Regions for Multiple Changep…
We address the new problem of estimating a piece-wise constant signal with the purpose of detecting its change points and the levels of clusters. Our approach is to model it as a nonparametric penalized least square model selection on a…
In a sparse stochastic block model with two communities of unequal sizes we derive two posterior concentration inequalities, that imply (1) posterior (almost-)exact recovery of the community structure under sparsity bounds comparable to…
An important problem in statistics is the construction of confidence regions for unknown parameters. In most cases, asymptotic distribution theory is used to construct confidence regions, so any coverage probability claims only hold…
Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…
We develop a fast and accurate grouped penalized credible region approach for variable selection and prediction in Bayesian high-dimensional linear regression. Most existing Bayesian methods either are subject to high computational costs…
We propose Narrowest Significance Pursuit (NSP), a general and flexible methodology for automatically detecting localised regions in data sequences which each must contain a change-point (understood as an abrupt change in the parameters of…
To segment a sequence of independent random variables at an unknown number of change-points, we introduce new procedures that are based on thresholding the likelihood ratio statistic. We also study confidence regions based on the likelihood…
We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the locations of change points in a high-dimensional mean shift model. To that end, we develop a locally refitted least squares estimator and obtain component-wise and…
Generalized belief propagation (GBP) has proven to be a promising technique for approximate inference tasks in AI and machine learning. However, the choice of a good set of clusters to be used in GBP has remained more of an art then a…
The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…
Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are…
In scientific disciplines such as neuroimaging, climatology, and cosmology it is useful to study the uncertainty of excursion sets of imaging data. While the case of imaging data obtained from a single study condition has already been…
We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…
Consider the observation of n iid realizations of an experiment with d>1 possible outcomes, which corresponds to a single observation of a multinomial distribution M(n,p) where p is an unknown discrete distribution on {1,...,d}. In many…
For exponentially distributed lifetimes, we consider the prediction of future order statistics based on having observed the first $m$ order statistics. We focus on the previously less explored aspects of predicting: (i) an arbitrary pair of…
We consider the problem of detecting multiple changepoints in large data sets. Our focus is on applications where the number of changepoints will increase as we collect more data: for example in genetics as we analyse larger regions of the…
This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…
We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification in change point regressions, where the signal can be piecewise polynomial of arbitrary but fixed degree. That is we seek disjoint intervals which, uniformly at a given confidence level,…
We introduce a new estimator SMUCE (simultaneous multiscale change-point estimator) for the change-point problem in exponential family regression. An unknown step function is estimated by minimizing the number of change-points over the…