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Monte Carlo (MC) integration is the de facto method for approximating the predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). But, even with many MC samples, Gaussian-based BNNs could still yield bad predictive performance due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Agustinus Kristiadi , Runa Eschenhagen , Philipp Hennig

We analyse and explain the increased generalisation performance of iterate averaging using a Gaussian process perturbation model between the true and batch risk surface on the high dimensional quadratic. We derive three phenomena…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-02 Diego Granziol , Xingchen Wan , Samuel Albanie , Stephen Roberts

We discuss several techniques for the evaluation of the generalised Lyapunov exponents which characterise the growth of products of random matrices in the large-deviation regime. A Monte Carlo algorithm that performs importance sampling…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2011-12-22 J. Vanneste

One of the most demanding calculations is to generate random samples from a specified probability distribution (usually with an unknown normalizing prefactor) in a high-dimensional configuration space. One often has to resort to using a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Youhan Fang , Jesus-Maria Sanz-Serna , Robert D. Skeel

Seismic tomography is a methodology to image the interior of solid or fluid media, and is often used to map properties in the subsurface of the Earth. In order to better interpret the resulting images it is important to assess imaging…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-05-20 Xin Zhang , Andrew Curtis

A resampling scheme provides a way to switch low-weight particles for sequential Monte Carlo with higher-weight particles representing the objective distribution. The less the variance of the weight distribution is, the more concentrated…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-19 Xiongming Dai , Gerald Baumgartner

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

Recent work has established a path-gradient estimator for simple variational Gaussian distributions and has argued that the path-gradient is particularly beneficial in the regime in which the variational distribution approaches the exact…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Lorenz Vaitl , Kim A. Nicoli , Shinichi Nakajima , Pan Kessel

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-09 Fredrik Lindsten , Jouni Helske , Matti Vihola

We present an iterative framework to improve the amortized approximations of posterior distributions in the context of Bayesian inverse problems, which is inspired by loop-unrolled gradient descent methods and is theoretically grounded in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Rafael Orozco , Ali Siahkoohi , Mathias Louboutin , Felix J. Herrmann

We study a version of the proximal gradient algorithm for which the gradient is intractable and is approximated by Monte Carlo methods (and in particular Markov Chain Monte Carlo). We derive conditions on the step size and the Monte Carlo…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Yves F. Atchade , Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines

As Gaussian processes are used to answer increasingly complex questions, analytic solutions become scarcer and scarcer. Monte Carlo methods act as a convenient bridge for connecting intractable mathematical expressions with actionable…

The gradient discretisation method (GDM) is a generic framework designed recently, as a discretise in spatial space, to partial differential equations. This paper aims to use the GDM to establish a first general error estimate for numerical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Yahya Alnashri

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-14 Xunpeng Huang , Hanze Dong , Yifan Hao , Yi-An Ma , Tong Zhang

We present an iterative method to diagonalise large matrices. The basic idea is the same as the conjugated gradient (CG) method, i.e, minimizing the Rayleigh quotient via its gradient and avoiding reintroduce errors to the directions of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Quanlin Jie , Dunhuan Liu

The replica-exchange Monte-Carlo (RXMC) method is a powerful Markov-chain Monte-Carlo algorithm for sampling from multi-modal distributions, which are challenging for conventional methods. The sampling efficiency of the RXMC method depends…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-01-21 Tatsuya Miyata , Shunta Arai , Satoshi Takabe

We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Daniel A. Roberts

Reinforcement learning methods for robotics are increasingly successful due to the constant development of better policy gradient techniques. A precise (low variance) and accurate (low bias) gradient estimator is crucial to face…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 João Carvalho , Davide Tateo , Fabio Muratore , Jan Peters

The Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models has been typically addressed through Monte Carlo sampling. Variational Inference is gaining popularity and attention as a robust approach for Bayesian inference in complex machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-06 Martin Magris , Alexandros Iosifidis

Many machine learning tasks require sampling a subset of items from a collection based on a parameterized distribution. The Gumbel-softmax trick can be used to sample a single item, and allows for low-variance reparameterized gradients with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Sang Michael Xie , Stefano Ermon
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