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Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-10-06 Virgile Troude , Sandro Claudio Lera , Ke Wu , Didier Sornette

Nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to a combination of noise and time-varying forcing can exhibit sudden changes, critical transitions or tipping points where large or rapid dynamic effects arise from changes in a parameter that are…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-05-21 Peter Ashwin , Julian Newman , Raphael Römer

Sudden transitions in the state of a system are often undesirable in natural and human-made systems. Such transitions under fast variation of system parameters are called rate-induced tipping. We experimentally demonstrate rate-induced…

Applied Physics · Physics 2022-09-15 Induja Pavithran , P. R. Midhun , R. I. Sujith

Tipping behavior can occur when an equilibrium of a dynamical system loses stability in response to a slowly varying parameter crossing a bifurcation threshold, or where noise drives a system from one attractor to another, or some…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-01-26 Raphael Römer , Peter Ashwin

We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Paul E. O'Keeffe , Sebastian Wieczorek

Tipping points are one of the hot topics in modern physics of complex systems. But what is a tipping point? A generic definition declares it as ``a state of the system where a small change in its parameters can lead to a significant change…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-25 Alan Hastings , Sergei Petrovskii , Valerio Lucarini , Andrew Morozov

Model studies indicate that many climate subsystems, especially ecosystems, may be vulnerable to 'tipping': a 'catastrophic process' in which a system, driven by gradually changing external factors, abruptly transitions (or 'collapses')…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-06-30 Dock Staal , Arjen Doelman

Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Christian Kuehn

We identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-10-11 Hassan Alkhayuon , Rebecca C. Tyson , Sebastian Wieczorek

Sudden and abrupt changes can occur in a nonlinear system within many fields of science when such a system crosses a tipping point and rapid changes of the system occur in response to slow changes in an external forcing. These can occur…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-09-05 Paul D. L. Ritchie , Robbin Bastiaansen , Anna S. von der Heydt , Peter Ashwin

We consider the effect on tipping from an additive periodic forcing in a canonical model with a saddle node bifurcation and a slowly varying bifurcation parameter. Here tipping refers to the dramatic change in dynamical behavior…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2015-08-28 Jielin Zhu , Rachel Kuske , Thomas Erneux

We analyze rate-dependent tipping in a fast/slow system with an equilibrium near the fold of a critical manifiold. We find a Hopf bifurcation as the rate parameter increases in the reduced co-moving system. This implies the growth of a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-04-25 Jonathan Hahn

A classical scenario for tipping is that a dynamical system experiences a slow parameter drift across a fold tipping point, caused by a run-away positive feedback loop. We study what happens if one turns around after one has crossed the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-21 Paul Ritchie , Ozkan Karabacak , Jan Sieber

This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-04 Sheng Fang , Ziyan Wang , Jürgen Kurths , Jingfang Fan

Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-09-19 Francois Louchet

The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-12-02 Tapas Bar , Anurag Banerjee , Blai Casals , Gustau Catalan , Javier Rodríguez-Viejo

We study the behaviour at tipping points close to (smoothed) non-smooth fold bifurcations in one-dimensional oscillatory forced systems. The focus is the Stommel-Box, and related climate models, which are piecewise-smooth continuous…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-05-18 Chris Budd , Rachel Kuske

We identify a new universality class of phase transitions that arises in non-normal systems, challenging the classical view that transitions require eigenvalue instabilities. In traditional bifurcation theory, critical phenomena emerge when…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-10-10 Virgile Troude , Didier Sornette

We report the study of sudden transitions or tipping in a collection of systems induced due to multiplexing with another network of systems. The emergent dynamics of oscillators on one layer can undergo a sudden transition to steady state…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2021-05-17 Umesh Kumar Verma , G. Ambika

Varying one of the governing parameters of a dynamical system may lead to a critical transition, where the new stable state is undesirable. In some cases, there is only a limited range of the bifurcation parameter that corresponds to that…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2018-11-27 Giacomo Bonciolini , Nicolas Noiray
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