Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to Modelling Fine-Scale Spatia…
The underlying reasons behind modern terrorism are seemingly complex and intangible. Despite diverse causal mechanisms, research has shown that there exists general statistical patterns at the global scale that can shed light on human…
This paper introduces new methods for studying the prevalence of terrorism around the world and over time. Our analysis treats spatial prevalence of terrorism, the changing profile of groups carrying out the acts of terrorism, and trends in…
In the last 20 years, terrorism has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and massive economic, political, and humanitarian crises in several regions of the world. Using real-world data on attacks occurred in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2001…
We develop flexible multivariate spatio-temporal Hawkes process models to analyze patterns of terrorism. Previous applications of point process methods to political violence data mainly utilize temporal Hawkes process models, neglecting…
The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern in national and international security, as its spread is seen as an existential threat to Western liberal democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the spread of terrorism…
Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling is an extremely attractive way to model the spread of crime or terrorism data over a given region, especially when the observations are counts and must be modeled discretely. The spatio-temporal…
We study the spatiotemporal correlation of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, ISIS, and local insurgents, in six geographical areas identified via $k$-means clustering applied to the Global Terrorism Database. All surveyed organizations exhibit…
The rapid spread of radical ideologies in recent years has led to a worldwide string of terrorist attacks. Understanding how extremist tendencies germinate, develop, and drive individuals to action is important from a cultural standpoint,…
We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a…
Extreme events with potential deadly outcomes, such as those organized by terror groups, are highly unpredictable in nature and an imminent threat to society. In particular, quantifying the likelihood of a terror attack occurring in an…
Terrorism instills fear in the minds of people and takes away the freedom of individuals to act as they will. Terrorism has turned out to be an international menace today. Here, we study the terrorist attack incidents which occurred in the…
Understanding the relationship between change in crime over time and the geography of urban areas is an important problem for urban planning. Accurate estimation of changing crime rates throughout a city would aid law enforcement as well as…
This study presents a spatiotemporal dual Bayesian model that examines both the occurrence and number of conflict fatalities using event-level data from Ethiopia (1997-2024), sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED)…
Self-exciting spatiotemporal Hawkes processes have found increasing use in the study of large-scale public health threats ranging from gun violence and earthquakes to wildfires and viral contagion. Whereas many such applications feature…
Many successful terrorist groups operate across international borders where different countries host different stages of terrorist operations. Often the recruits for the group come from one country or countries, while the targets of the…
In this paper we investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of obesity rates across Italian regions from 2010 to 2022, aiming to identify spatial and temporal trends and assess potential heterogeneities. We implement a Bayesian hierarchical…
Although much political capital has been made regarding the war on terrorism, and while appropriations have gotten underway, there has been a dearth of deep work on counter-terrorism, and despite massive efforts by the federal government,…
Nowadays, 23% of the world population lives in multi-million cities. In these metropolises, criminal activity is much higher and violent than in either small cities or rural areas. Thus, understanding what factors influence urban crime in…
Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through…
Epidemiological investigations of regionally aggregated spatial data often involve detecting spatial health disparities among neighboring regions on a map of disease mortality or incidence rates. Analyzing such data introduces spatial…