Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to Modelling Fine-Scale Spatia…
Analyses of occurrences of residential burglary in urban areas have shown that crime rates are not spatially homogeneous: rates vary across the network of city streets, resulting in some areas being far more susceptible to crime than…
In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the driving mechanisms that underlie fourth-generation warfare. We have undertaken this from a perspective of endeavoring to understand the drivers of these events from a…
The analysis of population-wide datasets can provide insight on the health status of large populations so that public health officials can make data-driven decisions. The analysis of such datasets often requires highly parameterized models…
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based…
Complexity science affords a number of novel tools for examining terrorism, particularly network analysis and NK-Boolean fitness landscapes. The following paper explores various aspects of terrorist networks which can be illuminated through…
In the spirit of Richardson's original (1948) study of the statistics of deadly conflicts, we study the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks worldwide since 1968. We show that these events are uniformly characterized by the…
Traditional analyses of international terrorism have not sought to explain the emergence of rare but extremely severe events. Using the tools of extremal statistics to analyze the set of terrorist attacks worldwide between 1968 and 2004, as…
Terrorism has become one of the most tedious problems to deal with and a prominent threat to mankind. To enhance counter-terrorism, several research works are developing efficient and precise systems, data mining is not an exception.…
Urban scaling theory posits that urban indicators follow power-law relations with population, yet the evolution of these patterns - and the role of regional differences in settings marked by social inequalities and unplanned urbanization -…
The monitoring of conflict risk in the humanitarian sector is largely based on simple historic averages. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the potential for using a more statistically rigorous approach to monitor the risk of…
Human flourishing is often severely limited by persistent violence. Quantitative conflict research has found common temporal and other statistical patterns in warfare, but very little is understood about its general spatial patterns. While…
Society faces a fundamental global problem of understanding which individuals are currently developing strong support for some extremist entity such as ISIS (Islamic State) -- even if they never end up doing anything in the real world. The…
Capturing dynamics of operational similarity among terrorist groups is critical to provide actionable insights for counter-terrorism and intelligence monitoring. Yet, in spite of its theoretical and practical relevance, research addressing…
Who joins extremist movements? Answering this question poses considerable methodological challenges. Survey techniques are infeasible and selective samples provide no counterfactual. Recruits can be assigned to contextual units, but this is…
Activities of terrorist groups present a serious threat to the security and well-being of the general public. Counterterrorism authorities aim to identify and frustrate the plans of terrorist groups before they are put into action. Whilst…
Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…
In this paper I propose a 'mechanism' for the explanation of power-law characteristics of casualty dynamics in inter-state wars, intra-state wars and terrorist attacks: the scale-free physical organization of social systems. Other…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…
In the last decades, the notion that cities are in a state of equilibrium with a centralised organisation has given place to the viewpoint of cities in disequilibrium and organised from bottom to up. In this perspective, cities are evolving…
The spread of radical ideologies is a key to fanaticism, recruitment and terrorist activities. Hence, preventing such activities requires predictive models capable of identifying areas and agents before occurrence of catastrophic terrorist…