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In this paper we investigate how the bootstrap can be applied to time series regressions when the volatility of the innovations is random and non-stationary. The volatility of many economic and financial time series displays persistent…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-12 H. Peter Boswijk , Giuseppe Cavaliere , Anders Rahbek , Iliyan Georgiev

We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Davide La Vecchia , Alban Moor , Olivier Scaillet

Inference for functional linear models in the presence of heteroscedastic errors has received insufficient attention given its practical importance; in fact, even a central limit theorem has not been studied in this case. At issue,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-27 Hyemin Yeon , Xiongtao Dai , Daniel John Nordman

Although there is an extensive literature on the eigenvalues of high-dimensional sample covariance matrices, much of it is specialized to independent components (IC) models -- in which observations are represented as linear transformations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-05 Siyao Wang , Miles E. Lopes

We propose a hierarchy of multi-level kinetic Monte Carlo methods for sampling high-dimensional, stochastic lattice particle dynamics with complex interactions. The method is based on the efficient coupling of different spatial resolution…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-08-06 Evangelia Kalligiannaki , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Petr Plechac

In this paper we propose using a nonparametric model specification test for parametric time series with long-range dependence (LRD). To establish asymptotic distributions of the proposed test statistic, we develop new central limit theorems…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-11 Jiti Gao , Qiying Wang , Jiying Yin

We consider forecasting functional time series of extreme values within a generalised extreme value distribution (GEV). The GEV distribution can be characterised using the three parameters (location, scale and shape). As a result, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 Han Lin Shang , Ruofan Xu

The bootstrap is a popular method of constructing confidence intervals due to its ease of use and broad applicability. Theoretical properties of bootstrap procedures have been established in a variety of settings. However, there is limited…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-19 Zhou Tang , Ted Westling

This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-12 Wilfredo Palma , Ricardo Olea

Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-09 Michael Minyi Zhang , Bianca Dumitrascu , Sinead A. Williamson , Barbara E. Engelhardt

The recurrent neural network with the long short-term memory cell (LSTM-NN) is employed to simulate the long-time dynamics of open quantum system. The bootstrap method is applied in the LSTM-NN construction and prediction, which provides a…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2021-11-05 Kunni Lin , Jiawei Peng , Feng Long Gu , Zhenggang Lan

In this paper we present a technique for using the bootstrap to estimate the operating characteristics and their variability for certain types of ensemble methods. Bootstrapping a model can require a huge amount of work if the training data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-26 Anthony Gamst , Jay-Calvin Reyes , Alden Walker

We propose a new sensitivity analysis methodology for complex stochastic dynamics based on the Relative Entropy Rate. The method becomes computationally feasible at the stationary regime of the process and involves the calculation of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2013-04-16 Yannis Pantazis , Markos A. Katsoulakis

Bootstrap is a widely used technique that allows estimating the properties of a given estimator, such as its bias and standard error. In this paper, we evaluate and compare five bootstrap-based methods for making confidence intervals: two…

We propose a double bootstrap procedure for reducing coverage error in the confidence intervals of descriptive statistics for independent and identically distributed functional data. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations, we compare…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-03 Han Lin Shang

We estimate the parameter of a stationary time series process by minimizing the integrated weighted mean squared error between the empirical and simulated characteristic function, when the true characteristic functions cannot be explicitly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Richard A. Davis , Thiago do Rêgo Sousa , Claudia Klüppelberg

Functional data often arise from measurements on fine time grids and are obtained by separating an almost continuous time record into natural consecutive intervals, for example, days. The functions thus obtained form a functional time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-14 Siegfried Hörmann , Piotr Kokoszka

In this paper, we develop uniform inference methods for the conditional mode based on quantile regression. Specifically, we propose to estimate the conditional mode by minimizing the derivative of the estimated conditional quantile function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-14 Tao Zhang , Kengo Kato , David Ruppert

The problem of testing the equality of the generating processes of two categorical time series is addressed in this work. To this aim, we propose three tests relying on a dissimilarity measure between categorical processes. Particular…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-02 Ángel López-Oriona , José Antonio Vilar Fernández , Pierpaolo D'Urso

In Das and Politis(2020), a model-free bootstrap(MFB) paradigm was proposed for generating prediction intervals of univariate, (locally) stationary time series. Theoretical guarantees for this algorithm was resolved in Wang and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-17 Yiren Wang , Dimitris N. Politis