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In Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulations, estimating statistical errors or confidence intervals of numerically obtained values is an essential task. In this paper, we review several methods for error estimation, such as simple empirical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-12-23 Yoshihiko Nishikawa , Jun Takahashi , Takashi Takahashi

A time-domain test for the assumption of second order stationarity of a functional time series is proposed. The test is based on combining individual cumulative sum tests which are designed to be sensitive to changes in the mean, variance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Axel Bücher , Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

Resampling methods such as the bootstrap have proven invaluable in the field of machine learning. However, the applicability of traditional bootstrap methods is limited when dealing with large streams of dependent data, such as time series…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-28 Nicolai Palm , Thomas Nagler

A bootstrap procedure for constructing prediction bands for a stationary functional time series is proposed. The procedure exploits a general vector autoregressive representation of the time-reversed series of Fourier coefficients appearing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-17 Efstathios Paparoditis , Han Lin Shang

Existing frequency domain methods for bootstrapping time series have a limited range. Consider for instance the class of spectral mean statistics (also called integrated periodograms) which includes many important statistics in time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Marco Meyer , Efstathios Paparoditis , Jens-Peter Kreiss

We propose a nonstationary functional time series forecasting method with an application to age-specific mortality rates observed over the years. The method begins by taking the first-order differencing and estimates its long-run covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-20 Han Lin Shang , Yang Yang

We are concerned with nonparametric hypothesis testing of time series functionals. It is known that the popular autoregressive sieve bootstrap is, in general, not valid for statistics whose (asymptotic) distribution depends on moments of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-21 Natalia Sirotko-Sibirskaya , Matthias O. Franz , Thorsten Dickhaus

We consider the problem of testing for long-range dependence in time-varying coefficient regression models, where the covariates and errors are locally stationary, allowing complex temporal dynamics and heteroscedasticity. We develop KPSS,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-10 Lujia Bai , Weichi Wu

We introduce methods and theory for fractionally cointegrated curve time series. We develop a variance-ratio test to determine the dimensions associated with the nonstationary and stationary subspaces. For each subspace, we apply a local…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-10 Won-Ki Seo , Han Lin Shang

This article studies bootstrap inference for high dimensional weakly dependent time series in a general framework of approximately linear statistics. The following high dimensional applications are covered: (1) uniform confidence band for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-08-12 Xianyang Zhang , Guang Cheng

We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high-frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-06 Mikkel Bennedsen , Ulrich Hounyo , Asger Lunde , Mikko S. Pakkanen

A bootstrap procedure for functional time series is proposed which exploits a general vector autoregressive representation of the time series of Fourier coefficients appearing in the Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansion of the functional process. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-04 Efstathios Paparoditis

For testing hypothesis on the covariance operator of functional time series, we suggest to use the full functional information and to avoid dimension reduction techniques. The limit distribution follows from the central limit theorem of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-02 Olimjon Sh. Sharipov , Martin Wendler

Multivariate time series present many challenges, especially when they are high dimensional. The paper's focus is twofold. First, we address the subject of consistently estimating the autocovariance sequence; this is a sequence of matrices…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-03 Carsten Jentsch , Dimitris N. Politis

Multivariate locally stationary functional time series provide a flexible framework for modeling complex data structures exhibiting both temporal and spatial dependencies while allowing for time-varying data generating mechanism. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 Lujia Bai , Holger Dette , Weichi Wu

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-01 Alexander Aue , Diogo Dubart Norinho , Siegfried Hörmann

We consider infinite-dimensional Hilbert space-valued random variables that are assumed to be temporal dependent in a broad sense. We prove a central limit theorem for the moving block bootstrap and for the tapered block bootstrap, and show…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-24 Dimitrios Pilavakis , Efstathios Paparoditis , Theofanis Sapatinas

This article proposes an online bootstrap scheme for nonparametric level estimation in nonstationary time series. Our approach applies to a broad class of level estimators expressible as weighted sample averages over time windows, including…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Thomas Nagler , Tobias Brock , Nicolai Palm

Long-run covariance matrix estimation is the building block of time series inference. The corresponding difference-based estimator, which avoids detrending, has attracted considerable interest due to its robustness to both smooth and abrupt…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-29 Lujia Bai , Weichi Wu

In this paper we propose a nonparametric procedure for validating the assumption of stationarity in multivariate locally stationary time series models. We develop a bootstrap assisted test based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type statistic, which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-06 Ruprecht Puchstein , Philip Preuß
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