Related papers: Gaussian approximation of nonlinear Hawkes process…

This paper presents a general approach to linear stochastic processes driven by various random noises. Mathematically, such processes are described by linear stochastic differential equations of arbitrary order (the simplest non-trivial…

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience,…

Let $\eta_t$ be a Poisson point process of intensity $t\geq 1$ on some state space $\Y$ and $f$ be a non-negative symmetric function on $\Y^k$ for some $k\geq 1$. Applying $f$ to all $k$-tuples of distinct points of $\eta_t$ generates a…

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

We show that, for general convolution approximations to a large class of log-correlated Gaussian fields, the properly normalised supercritical Gaussian multiplicative chaos measures converge stably to a nontrivial limit. This limit depends…

We address the issue of knots selection for Gaussian predictive process methodology. Predictive process approximation provides an effective solution to the cubic order computational complexity of Gaussian process models. This approximation…

In this paper we consider some non linear Hawkes processes with signed reproduction function (or memory kernel) thus exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. We provide a Law of Large Numbers, a Central Limit Theorem and large…

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

We study the largest gaps between successive zeros of a smooth stationary Gaussian process. Our main result is that, if correlations decay at least polynomially, then after suitable rescaling of the locations and sizes of the largest gaps…

Recently, a novel linear model predictive control algorithm based on a physics-informed Gaussian Process has been introduced, whose realizations strictly follow a system of underlying linear ordinary differential equations with constant…

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other…

We derive quantitative bounds in the Wasserstein distance for the approximation of stochastic integrals with respect to Hawkes processes by a normally distributed random variable. In the case of deterministic and non-negative integrands,…

We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…

Quantitative limit theorems for non-linear functionals on the Wiener space are considered. Given the possibly infinite sequence of kernels of the chaos decomposition of such a functional, an estimate for different probability distances…

In this paper, we provide upper bounds on the d2 distance between a large class of functionals of a multivariate compound Hawkes process and a given Gaussian vector. This is proven using Malliavin's calculus defined on an underlying Poisson…

We study nonparametric Bayesian inference for the intensity function of a covariate-driven point process. We extend recent results from the literature, showing that a wide class of Gaussian priors, combined with flexible link functions,…

Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…

We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…

Gaussian processes retain the linear model either as a special case, or in the limit. We show how this relationship can be exploited when the data are at least partially linear. However from the perspective of the Bayesian posterior, the…