Related papers: Sea-level projections representing deeply uncertai…
Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice…
Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet…
Sea-level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage…
Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…
Sea-levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and…
Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet…
Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods are…
The future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the current state of WAIS is therefore…
Future projections of Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss remain characterized by deep uncertainty (i.e., behavior is not well understood or widely agreed upon by experts). This complicates decisions on long-lived projects involving the…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
Reliable dynamic sea level forecasts are hindered by numerous sources of uncertainty on daily-to-seasonal timescales (1-180 days) due to atmospheric boundary conditions and internal ocean variability. Studies have demonstrated that certain…
Coastal planners and decision makers design risk management strategies based on hazard projections. However, projections can differ drastically. What causes this divergence and which projection(s) should a decision maker adopt to create…
Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in…
Human-induced climate change may cause significant ice volume loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Projections of ice volume change from ice-sheet models and corresponding future sea-level rise have large uncertainties due to…
In the expanding Earth framework it is possible to find additional phenomena that could contribute in a proper way to the water balance and general tectonic eustatism involved in the sea lever rising. Recent compilations seems to leave…
Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…
Projecting sea-level change in various climate-change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice mass change, which requires high computational…
The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal…
Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is a strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of…
Coastal flooding drives considerable risks to many communities, but projections of future flood risks are deeply uncertain. The paucity of observations of extreme events often motivates the use of statistical approaches to model the…