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Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and…
Discrete mixture models are routinely used for density estimation and clustering. While conducting inferences on the cluster-specific parameters, current frequentist and Bayesian methods often encounter problems when clusters are placed too…
Semiparametric regression offers a flexible framework for modeling non-linear relationships between a response and covariates. A prime example are generalized additive models where splines (say) are used to approximate non-linear functional…
The general principles of Bayesian data analysis imply that models for survey responses should be constructed conditional on all variables that affect the probability of inclusion and nonresponse, which are also the variables used in survey…
The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…
I shall describe a general model-theoretic task to construct expansions of pseudofinite structures and discuss several examples of particular relevance to computational complexity. Then I will present one specific situation where finding a…
Mathematical models are increasingly used in both academia and the pharmaceutical industry to understand how phenotypes emerge from systems of molecular interactions. However, their current construction as monolithic sets of equations…
In their letter to PNAS and a comprehensive set of notes on arXiv [arXiv:0909.5673v2], Christian Robert, Kerrie Mengersen and Carla Chen (RMC) represent our approach to model criticism in situations when the likelihood cannot be computed as…
Prior specification for nonparametric Bayesian inference involves the difficult task of quantifying prior knowledge about a parameter of high, often infinite, dimension. Realistically, a statistician is unlikely to have informed opinions…
Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for…
Compositional generalization is the ability of a model to generalize to complex, previously unseen types of combinations of entities from just having seen the primitives. This type of generalization is particularly relevant to the semantic…
We consider penalized regression models under a unified framework where the particular method is determined by the form of the penalty term. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that incorporates both sparse and dense settings and show how…
Psychosocial constructs can only be assessed indirectly, and measures are typically formed by a combination of indicators that are thought to relate to the construct. Reflective and formative measurement models offer different…
Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is…
We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…
Compositional generalization-a key open challenge in modern machine learning-requires models to predict unknown combinations of known concepts. However, assessing compositional generalization remains a fundamental challenge due to the lack…
This study develops a framework for a class of constant modulus (CM) optimization problems, which covers binary constraints, discrete phase constraints, semi-orthogonal matrix constraints, non-negative semi-orthogonal matrix constraints,…
Structural causal models (SCMs) are a powerful tool for understanding the complex causal relationships that underlie many real-world systems. As these systems grow in size, the number of variables and complexity of interactions between them…
Complexity remains one of the central challenges in science and technology. Although several approaches at defining and/or quantifying complexity have been proposed, at some point each of them seems to run into intrinsic limitations or…
Integrative modeling of macromolecular assemblies allows for structural characterization of large assemblies that are recalcitrant to direct experimental observation. A Bayesian inference approach facilitates combining data from…