Related papers: Importance sampling of heavy-tailed iterated rando…
We consider solutions to so-called stochastic fixed point equation $R \stackrel{d}{=} \Psi(R)$, where $\Psi $ is a random Lipschitz function and $R$ is a random variable independent of $\Psi$. Under the assumption that $\Psi$ can be…
In this paper, we consider an importance sampling problem for a certain rare-event simulations involving the behavior of a diffusion process pertaining to a chain of distributed systems with random perturbations. We also assume that the…
We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…
We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient…
Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…
We develop a new algorithm for the estimation of rare event probabilities associated with the steady-state of a Markov stochastic process with continuous state space $\mathbb R^d$ and discrete time steps (i.e. a discrete-time $\mathbb…
We introduce a new class of heavy-tailed distributions for which any weighted average of independent and identically distributed random variables is larger than one such random variable in (usual) stochastic order. We show that many…
Let $X_1,X_2,...$ be a sequence of random variables satisfying the distributional recursion $X_1=0$ and $X_n= X_{n-I_n}+1$ for $n=2,3,...$, where $I_n$ is a random variable with values in $\{1,...,n-1\}$ which is independent of…
Large deviation theory and instanton calculus for stochastic systems are widely used to gain insight into the evolution and probability of rare events. At its core lies the realization that rare events are, under the right circumstances,…
We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…
Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…
Probabilistic models based on Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) imply the evaluation of normalized Boltzmann factors, which in turn require from the evaluation of the partition function Z. The exact evaluation of Z, though, becomes a…
We consider importance sampling to estimate the probability $\mu$ of a union of $J$ rare events $H_j$ defined by a random variable $\boldsymbol{x}$. The sampler we study has been used in spatial statistics, genomics and combinatorics going…
Although stochastic models driven by latent Markov processes are widely used, the classical importance sampling methods based on the exponential tilting for these models suffers from the difficulties in computing the eigenvalues and…
Computing the exact likelihood of data in large Bayesian networks consisting of thousands of vertices is often a difficult task. When these models contain many deterministic conditional probability tables and when the observed values are…
We consider the Pickands process {equation*} P_{n}(s)=\log (1/s)^{-1}\log \frac{X_{n-k+1,n}-X_{n-[k/s]+1,n}}{% X_{n-[k/s]+1,n}-X_{n-[k/s^{2}]+1,n}}, {equation*} {equation*} (\frac{k}{n}\leq s^2 \leq 1), {equation*} which is a generalization…
This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…
In this paper, we present a novel iterative Monte Carlo method for approximating the stationary probability of a single state of a positive recurrent Markov chain. We utilize the characterization that the stationary probability of a state…
We study rare event simulations of semimartingale reflecting Brownian motions (SRBMs) in an orthant. The rare event of interest is that a $d$-dimensional positive recurrent SRBM enters the set $B_n = \{z\in\mathbb{R}^d: \sum_{k=1}^d z_k =…
Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…