Related papers: Revisiting the prediction of solar activity based …
We consider the statistical relationship between the growth rate of activity in the early phase of a solar cycle with its subsequent amplitude on the basis of four datasets of global activity indices (Wolf sunspot number, group sunspot…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…
The minimum - maximum method, belonging to the precursor class of the solar activity forecasting methods, is based on a linear relationship between relative sunspot number in the minimum and maximum epochs of solar cycles. In the present…
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…
Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the…
The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects…
Using Greenwich and SOON sunspot group data during the period 1874 -- 2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in $0^\circ$ -- $10^\circ$ latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval,…
Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for…
Detailed models of the solar cycle require information about the starting time and rise time as well as the shape and amplitude of the cycle. However, none of these models includes a discussion of the variations in the length of the cycle,…
The use of different solar activity indices like sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, flare index, magnetic fields, etc., allows us to investigate the time evolution of some specific features of the solar activity and the underlying dynamo…
The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be…
Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative…
The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method…
In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time…
The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating…
The parameter G, which is determined from the general number of sunspots groups Ng according to the daily observations G=Sum(1/Ng)^2, is offered. This parameter is calculated for the days when there is at least one sunspots group. It…
Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently,…
The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…
We propose a simple method for prediction of the 11-year solar cycle maximum that is based on two relations. One of them is well known Waldmeier's rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second…