Related papers: Some Statistics concerning the Austrian Presidenti…
In this paper, we provide a systematic analysis of the Twitter discussion on the 2016 Austrian presidential elections. In particular, we extracted and analyzed a data-set consisting of 343645 Twitter messages related to the 2016 Austrian…
With a majority of 'Yes' votes in the Constitutional Referendum of 2017, Turkey continues its transition from democracy to autocracy. By the will of the Turkish people, this referendum transferred practically all executive power to…
The Honduran incumbent president and his administration recently declared victory in an election riddled with irregularities and indicators of fraud. Perhaps most curious, however, was a numerical anomaly: the primary challenger carried a…
In almost every election cycle, the validity of the United States Electoral College is brought into question. The 2016 Presidential Election again brought up the issue of a candidate winning the popular vote but not winning the Electoral…
Here we perform a statistical analysis of the official data from recent Russian parliamentary and presidential elections (held on December 4th, 2011 and March 4th, 2012, respectively). A number of anomalies are identified that persistently…
We hypothesize that if election results are manipulated or forged, then, due to the well-known human attraction to round numbers, the frequency of reported round percentages can be increased. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed raw data…
There have been several instances in our nation's history in which the presidential candidate who received the most popular votes did not win the presidency. Using a principal components analysis of recent presidential elections, we…
Concerns about the integrity of Turkey's elections have increased with the recent transition from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency under Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Election forensics tools are used to identify statistical…
We present a method and software for ballot-polling risk-limiting audits (RLAs) based on Bernoulli sampling: ballots are included in the sample with probability $p$, independently. Bernoulli sampling has several advantages: (1) it does not…
We use a method based on machine learning, big-data analytics, and network theory to process millions of messages posted in Twitter to predict election outcomes. The model has achieved accurate results in the current Argentina primary…
To many statisticians and citizens, the outcome of the most recent U.S. presidential election represents a failure of data-driven methods on the grandest scale. This impression has led to much debate and discussion about how the election…
In 1998 a long-lost proposal for an election law by Gottlob Frege (1848--1925) was rediscovered in the Th\"uringer Universit\"ats- und Landesbibliothek in Jena, Germany. The method that Frege proposed for the election of representatives of…
We study the anomalous prevalence of integer percentages in the last parliamentary (2016) and presidential (2018) Russian elections. We show how this anomaly in Russian federal elections has evolved since 2000.
Data of proportional elections show a striking feature: If the parties are ranked according to the number of their voters, the number of votes grows exponentially with the rank of the party. This so-called Zipf's law has been reported…
Georgia was central to efforts to overturn the 2020 Presidential election, including a call from then-president Trump to Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger asking Raffensperger to `find' 11,780 votes. Raffensperger has maintained that…
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in…
In the US 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama was elected as the 44th president of United States, winning the 53% of popular votes and 68% of electoral votes; in the election of 2000, Al Gore lost the election receiving 49 % of…
The best way to reconcile political actors in a controversial electoral process is a full audit. When this is not possible, statistical tools may be useful for measuring the likelihood of the results. The Venezuelan recall referendum (2004)…
The voting systems known as Alternative Vote (AV) and Single Transferable Vote (STV) are extensively used for elections in Australia, possibly more than in any other jurisdiction. Often proposed as superior alternatives to Plurality and…
Elections employ various voting systems to determine winners based on voters' preferences. However, many recent ranked-choice elections have forced voters to truncate their ballots by only ranking a subset of the candidates. This study…