Related papers: Credit default prediction and parabolic potential …

Prediction of breakdown in disordered solids under external loading in a question of paramount importance. Here we use a fiber bundle model for disordered solids and record the time series of the avalanche sizes and energy bursts. The time…

The current research on credit risk is primarily focused on modeling default probabilities. Recovery rates are often treated as an afterthought; they are modeled independently, in many cases they are even assumed constant. This is despite…

When the limiting compensator of a sequence of martingales is continuous, we obtain a weak convergence theorem for the martingales; the limiting process can be written as a Brownian motion evaluated at the compensator and we find sufficient…

There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover…

This paper investigates the finite horizon risk-sensitive portfolio optimization in a regime-switching credit market with physical and information-induced default contagion. It is assumed that the underlying regime-switching process has…

In this paper we propose a copula contagion mixture model for correlated default times. The model includes the well known factor, copula, and contagion models as its special cases. The key advantage of such a model is that we can study the…

Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the use of stress tests as a tool for assessing the resilience of financial institutions to adverse financial and economic developments has increased significantly. One key part in such exercises is…

Motivated by the Brownian bridge on random interval considered by Bedini et al \cite{BBE}, we introduce and study Gaussian bridges with random length with special emphasis to the Markov property. We prove that if the starting process is…

Bankruptcy prediction is very important for all the organization since it affects the economy and rise many social problems with high costs. There are large number of techniques have been developed to predict the bankruptcy, which helps the…

As impressively shown by the financial crisis in 2007/08, contagion effects in financial networks harbor a great threat for the stability of the entire system. Without sufficient capital requirements for banks and other financial…

We investigate the asymptotic of ruin probabilities when the company invests its reserve in a risky asset with a switching regime price. We assume that the asset price is a conditional geometric Brownian motion with parameters modulated by…

Models for bankruptcy prediction are useful in several real-world scenarios, and multiple research contributions have been devoted to the task, based on structured (numerical) as well as unstructured (textual) data. However, the lack of a…

The paper analyzes the mathematics of the relationship between the default risk and yield-to-maturity of a coupon bond. It is shown that the yield-to-maturity is driven not only by the default probability and recovery rate of the bond but…

The paper studies a system of Hamilton-Jacobi equations, arising from a stochastic optimal debt management problem in an infinite time horizon with exponential discount, modeled as a noncooperative interaction between a borrower and a pool…

We consider a generalization of the classical risk model when the premium intensity depends on the current surplus of an insurance company. All surplus is invested in the risky asset, the price of which follows a geometric Brownian motion.…

In this paper we develop structural first passage models (AT1P and SBTV) with time-varying volatility and characterized by high tractability, moving from the original work of Brigo and Tarenghi (2004, 2005) [19] [20] and Brigo and Morini…

We consider a Brownian particle performing an overdamped motion in a power-law repulsive potential. If the potential grows with the distance faster than quadratically, the particle escapes to infinity in a finite time. We determine the…

The fragility of financial systems was starkly demonstrated in early 2023 through a cascade of major bank failures in the United States, including the second, third, and fourth largest collapses in the US history. The highly interdependent…

We consider a directed random walk making either 0 or $+1$ moves and a Brownian bridge, independent of the walk, conditioned to arrive at point $b$ on time $T$. The Hamiltonian is defined as the sum of the square of increments of the bridge…

Let $(W_1(s), W_2(t)), s,t\ge 0$ be a bivariate Brownian motion with standard Brownian motion marginals and constant correlation $\rho \in (-1,1).$ Parisian ruin is defined as a classical ruin that happens over an extended period of time,…