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Suppose that a cascade (e.g., an epidemic) spreads on an unknown graph, and only the infection times of vertices are observed. What can be learned about the graph from the infection times caused by multiple distinct cascades? Most of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-07 Elchanan Mossel , Anirudh Sridhar

In this paper we introduce a statistical inference framework for estimating the contagion source from a partially observed contagion spreading process on an arbitrary network structure. The framework is based on a maximum likelihood…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-03-12 Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Alen Lancic , Hrvoje Stefancic , Mile Sikic , Tomislav Smuc

We consider the problem of detecting the source of a rumor which has spread in a network using only observations about which set of nodes are infected with the rumor and with no information as to \emph{when} these nodes became infected. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-04 Devavrat Shah , Tauhid Zaman

We introduce a new method to efficiently approximate the number of infections resulting from a given initially-infected node in a network of susceptible individuals. Our approach is based on counting the number of possible infection walks…

Biological Physics · Physics 2012-10-25 Frank Bauer , Joseph T. Lizier

Researchers, policy makers, and engineers need to make sense of data on spreading processes as diverse as viral infections, water contamination, and misinformation in social networks. Classical questions include predicting infection…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Ben Bals

When dealing with the dissemination of epidemics, one important question that can be asked is the location where the contamination began. In this paper, we analyze three spreading schemes and propose and validate an effective methodology…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-07-27 Cesar Henrique Comin , Luciano da Fontoura Costa

We study the task of selecting $k$ nodes, in a social network of size $n$, to seed a diffusion with maximum expected spread size, under the independent cascade model with cascade probability $p$. Most of the previous work on this problem…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Dean Eckles , Hossein Esfandiari , Elchanan Mossel , M. Amin Rahimian

We study the problem of identifying the source of emerging large-scale outbreaks of foodborne disease. To solve the source identification problem we formulate a probabilistic model of the contamination diffusion process as a random walk on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-09 Abigail L. Horn , Hanno Friedrich

We consider the task of estimating a network cascade as fast as possible. The cascade is assumed to spread according to a general Susceptible-Infected process with heterogeneous transmission rates from an unknown source in the network.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-13 Anirudh Sridhar , Tirza Routtenberg , H. Vincent Poor

The study of SIS epidemics on networks has stressed the role of the network topology on the spreading process. However, accurate models of SIS epidemics rely on the complete knowledge of the network topology, which is often not available.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-08-08 Aram Vajdi , Caterina Scoglioy

Identifying the source of epidemic-like spread in networks is crucial for removing internet viruses or finding the source of rumors in online social networks. The challenge lies in tracing the source from a snapshot observation of infected…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Pei-Duo Yu , Chee Wei Tan

Influence maximization is the task of selecting a small number of seed nodes in a social network to maximize the influence spread from these seeds. It has been widely investigated in the past two decades. In the canonical setting, the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-02-21 Zhijie Zhang , Wei Chen , Xiaoming Sun , Jialin Zhang

The epidemic spreading of a disease can be described by a contact network whose nodes are persons or centers of contagion and links heterogeneous relations among them. We provide a procedure to identify multiple sources of an outbreak or…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2012-11-13 Vincenzo Fioriti , Marta Chinnici

We study the problem of identifying the source of a diffusion spreading over a regular tree. When the degree of each node is at least three, we show that it is possible to construct confidence sets for the diffusion source with size…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-08 Justin Khim , Po-Ling Loh

We consider the problem of learning the weighted edges of a graph by observing the noisy times of infection for multiple epidemic cascades on this graph. Past work has considered this problem when the cascade information, i.e., infection…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-08-13 Jessica Hoffmann , Constantine Caramanis

Nowadays, the diffusion of information through social networks is a powerful phenomenon. One common way to model diffusions in social networks is the Independent Cascade (IC) model. Given a set of infected nodes according to the IC model, a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Yael Sabato , Amos Azaria , Noam Hazon

The susceptible--infected--susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on complex networks can show metastability, resembling an endemic equilibrium. In a general setting, the metastable state may involve a large portion of the network, or it can be…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-05-03 Faryad Darabi Sahneh , Aram Vajdi , Caterina Scoglio

Source localization, the act of finding the originator of a disease or rumor in a network, has become an important problem in sociology and epidemiology. The localization is done using the infection state and time of infection of a few…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-02-07 Brunella Spinelli , L. Elisa Celis , Patrick Thiran

Using the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on networks, we investigate the problem of inferring the class of the underlying network when epidemic data is only available at population-level (i.e. the number of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-12-05 F. Di Lauro , J. -C. Croix , M. Dashti , L. Berthouze , I. Z. Kiss

Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-05-14 Hadi Daneshmand , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez , Le Song , Bernhard Schoelkopf