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Bayesian coresets speed up posterior inference in the large-scale data regime by approximating the full-data log-likelihood function with a surrogate log-likelihood based on a small, weighted subset of the data. But while Bayesian coresets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-18 Trevor Campbell

PAC-Bayes is a useful framework for deriving generalization bounds which was introduced by McAllester ('98). This framework has the flexibility of deriving distribution- and algorithm-dependent bounds, which are often tighter than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-06 Roi Livni , Shay Moran

Many practical machine learning tasks can be framed as Structured prediction problems, where several output variables are predicted and considered interdependent. Recent theoretical advances in structured prediction have focused on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-22 Théophile Cantelobre , Benjamin Guedj , María Pérez-Ortiz , John Shawe-Taylor

The core of generalization theory was developed for independent observations. Some PAC and PAC-Bayes bounds are available for data that exhibit a temporal dependence. However, there are constants in these bounds that depend on properties of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-12 Vahe Karagulyan , Pierre Alquier

We introduce a new PAC-Bayes oracle bound for unbounded losses that extends Cram\'er-Chernoff bounds to the PAC-Bayesian setting. The proof technique relies on controlling the tails of certain random variables involving the Cram\'er…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Ioar Casado , Luis A. Ortega , Aritz Pérez , Andrés R. Masegosa

This paper deals with the taking into account a given set of realizations as constraints in the Kullback-Leibler minimum principle, which is used as a probabilistic learning algorithm. This permits the effective integration of data into…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-09 Christian Soize

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Simón Rodríguez Santana , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Modular Bayesian methods perform inference in models that are specified through a collection of coupled sub-models, known as modules. These modules often arise from modelling different data sources or from combining domain knowledge from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 David T. Frazier , David J. Nott

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Weichang Yu , Howard D. Bondell

We address the brittleness of Bayesian experimental design under model misspecification by formulating the problem as a max--min game between the experimenter and an adversarial nature subject to information-theoretic constraints. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Hany Abdulsamad , Sahel Iqbal , Christian A. Naesseth , Takuo Matsubara , Adrien Corenflos

Robust Bayesian linear regression is a classical but essential statistical tool. Although novel robustness properties of posterior distributions have been proved recently under a certain class of error distributions, their sufficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Yasuyuki Hamura , Kaoru Irie , Shonosuke Sugasawa

PAC generalization bounds on the risk, when expressed in terms of the expected loss, are often insufficient to capture imbalances between subgroups in the data. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a new family of risk measures, called…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-09 Hind Atbir , Farah Cherfaoui , Guillaume Metzler , Emilie Morvant , Paul Viallard

In the PAC-Bayesian literature, the C-Bound refers to an insightful relation between the risk of a majority vote classifier (under the zero-one loss) and the first two moments of its margin (i.e., the expected margin and the voters'…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-01 Paul Viallard , Pascal Germain , Amaury Habrard , Emilie Morvant

We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Shouhao Zhou

Meta-Learning aims to speed up the learning process on new tasks by acquiring useful inductive biases from datasets of related learning tasks. While, in practice, the number of related tasks available is often small, most of the existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-27 Jonas Rothfuss , Martin Josifoski , Vincent Fortuin , Andreas Krause

We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Daniel Andrade , Bernhard Sick

Meta learning automatically infers an inductive bias, that includes the hyperparameter of the base-learning algorithm, by observing data from a finite number of related tasks. This paper studies PAC-Bayes bounds on meta generalization gap.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Arezou Rezazadeh

Identifying optimal values for a high-dimensional set of hyperparameters is a problem that has received growing attention given its importance to large-scale machine learning applications such as neural architecture search. Recently…

Previous research on PAC-Bayes learning theory has focused extensively on establishing tight upper bounds for test errors. A recently proposed training procedure called PAC-Bayes training, updates the model toward minimizing these bounds.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-22 Xitong Zhang , Avrajit Ghosh , Guangliang Liu , Rongrong Wang

The problem of predicting independent Poisson random variables is commonly encountered in real-life practice. Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated, and the performance of predictive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Xiao Li , Fumiyasu Komaki
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