Related papers: A Strongly Quasiconvex PAC-Bayesian Bound
Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…
In this paper, we present a theoretical study of a low-rank matrix single index model. This model is recently introduced in biostatistics however its theoretical properties on estimating together the link function and the coefficient matrix…
We present a unified framework for deriving PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Unlike most previous literature on this topic, our bounds are anytime-valid (i.e., time-uniform), meaning that they hold at all stopping times, not only for a…
We present a unifying picture of PAC-Bayesian and mutual information-based upper bounds on the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms. As we show, Tong Zhang's information exponential inequality (IEI) gives a general recipe…
Missing time-series data is a prevalent problem in many prescriptive analytics models in operations management, healthcare and finance. Imputation methods for time-series data are usually applied to the full panel data with the purpose of…
We propose a novel Bayesian Optimization approach for black-box functions with an environmental variable whose value determines the tradeoff between evaluation cost and the fidelity of the evaluations. Further, we use a novel approach to…
An initial screening experiment may lead to ambiguous conclusions regarding the factors which are active in explaining the variation of an outcome variable: thus adding follow-up runs becomes necessary. We propose a fully Bayes objective…
While PAC-Bayes is now an established learning framework for light-tailed losses (\emph{e.g.}, subgaussian or subexponential), its extension to the case of heavy-tailed losses remains largely uncharted and has attracted a growing interest…
We consider a generalization of the classifier-based density-ratio estimation task to a quasiprobabilistic setting where probability densities can be negative. The problem with most loss functions used for this task is that they implicitly…
Let $f(\theta, X_1),$ $ \dots,$ $ f(\theta, X_n)$ be a sequence of random elements, where $f$ is a fixed scalar function, $X_1, \dots, X_n$ are independent random variables (data), and $\theta$ is a random parameter distributed according to…
The work of Sprungk (Inverse Problems, 2020) established the local Lipschitz continuity of the misfit-to-posterior and prior-to-posterior maps with respect to the Kullback--Leibler divergence and the total variation, Hellinger, and…
We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC,…
PAC-Bayes has recently re-emerged as an effective theory with which one can derive principled learning algorithms with tight performance guarantees. However, applications of PAC-Bayes to bandit problems are relatively rare, which is a great…
We exploit qualitative probabilistic relationships among variables for computing bounds of conditional probability distributions of interest in Bayesian networks. Using the signs of qualitative relationships, we can implement abstraction…
We give tight concentration bounds for mixtures of martingales that are simultaneously uniform over (a) mixture distributions, in a PAC-Bayes sense; and (b) all finite times. These bounds are proved in terms of the martingale variance,…
Parametric portfolio policies may experience estimation risk. I develop a generalized Bayesian framework that updates priors, delivering a posterior distribution over characteristic tilts and out-of-sample returns that is the unique…
The aim of reduced rank regression is to connect multiple response variables to multiple predictors. This model is very popular, especially in biostatistics where multiple measurements on individuals can be re-used to predict multiple…
In this study, simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables were considered and the performance of predictive distributions was evaluated using the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) loss. This study proposes a class of…
Bayesian nonparametric statistics is an area of considerable research interest. While recently there has been an extensive concentration in developing Bayesian nonparametric procedures for model checking, the use of the Dirichlet process,…