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Methods for forecasting time series adhering to linear constraints have seen notable development in recent years, especially with the advent of forecast reconciliation. This paper extends forecast reconciliation to the open question of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Daniele Girolimetto , Anastasios Panagiotelis , Tommaso Di Fonzo , Han Li

In this study, we employ the recently developed recurrence microstate probabilities as features to improve accuracy of several well-established machine learning (ML) algorithms. These algorithms are applied to classify discrete and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-12-15 J. V. M. Silveira , H. C. Costa , G. S. Spezzatto , T. L. Prado , S. R. Lopes

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a promising avenue for probabilistic modeling. They combine advantages of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) with those of neural networks (NNs). Crucially, however, they are tractable probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Anji Liu , Guy Van den Broeck

In this paper we address the problem of using one probability space for estimating parameters and predicting future data when the observed data come from multiple contexts and thus from distinct spaces. We explain that a set-based…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-10-30 Massimo Melucci

The emergent dynamics of complex systems often arise from the internal dynamical interactions among different elements and hence is to be modeled using multiple variables that represent the different dynamical processes. When such systems…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-11-05 Shivam Kumar , R. Misra , G. Ambika

We address the problem of computing reliable policies in reinforcement learning problems with limited data. In particular, we compute policies that achieve good returns with high confidence when deployed. This objective, known as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-01 Bahram Behzadian , Reazul Hasan Russel , Marek Petrik , Chin Pang Ho

Relations between categorical variables can be analyzed conveniently by multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). %It is well suited to discover relations that may exist between categories of different variables. The graphical representation…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-11 Patrick J. F. Groenen , Julie Josse

We suggest a robust nearest-neighbor approach to classifying high-dimensional data. The method enhances sensitivity by employing a threshold and truncates to a sequence of zeros and ones in order to reduce the deleterious impact of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-02 Yao-ban Chan , Peter Hall

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are popular when considering sampling from a high-dimensional random variable $\mathbf{x}$ with possibly unnormalised probability density $p$ and observed data $\mathbf{d}$. However, MCMC requires…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-11 Haoyun Ying , Keheng Mao , Klaus Mosegaard

Maximum entropy (MAXENT) method has a large number of applications in theoretical and applied machine learning, since it provides a convenient non-parametric tool for estimating unknown probabilities. The method is a major contribution of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-12-18 A. E. Allahverdyan , N. H. Martirosyan

Robotic systems must be able to quickly and robustly make decisions when operating in uncertain and dynamic environments. While Reinforcement Learning (RL) can be used to compute optimal policies with little prior knowledge about the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2016-09-13 Yunpeng Pan , Xinyan Yan , Evangelos Theodorou , Byron Boots

The integration of data from multiple sources is increasingly used to achieve larger sample sizes and enhance population diversity. Our previous work established that, under random sampling from the same underlying population, integrating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Farimah Shamsi , Andriy Derkach

A numerically efficient inverse method for parametric model uncertainty identification using maximum likelihood estimation is presented. The goal is to identify a probability model for a fixed number of model parameters based on a set of…

In this paper, we provide a new algorithm for the problem of prediction in Reinforcement Learning, \emph{i.e.}, estimating the Value Function of a Markov Reward Process (MRP) using the linear function approximation architecture, with memory…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-09-30 Ajin George Joseph , Shalabh Bhatnagar

Finding better solutions to combinatorial optimization problems could have a large positive impact on many real-world application areas, such as logistics. For this reason, significant efforts have been made to design novel optimisation…

We introduce constrained Gaussian process (CGP), a Gaussian process model for random functions that allows easy placement of mathematical constrains (e.g., non-negativity, monotonicity, etc) on its sample functions. CGP comes with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-23 Jeremiah Zhe Liu

We present a robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) framework for nonlinear continuous-time systems with bounded parametric uncertainty and additive disturbance. We utilize general control contraction metrics (CCMs) to parameterize…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-12 András Sasfi , Melanie N. Zeilinger , Johannes Köhler

The computation of chance constraints in stochastic model predictive control is often numerically challenging due to the non-Gaussian nature of the disturbances. To overcome this problem, we propose an optimization computational framework…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-19 Yuwei Ying , Johan Löfberg , Anders Hansson

The recently established RPCA method provides us a convenient way to restore low-rank matrices from grossly corrupted observations. While elegant in theory and powerful in reality, RPCA may be not an ultimate solution to the low-rank matrix…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-17 Guangcan Liu , Ping Li

Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a linear representation learning method that seeks maximally correlated variables in multi-view data. Non-linear CCA extends this notion to a broader family of transformations, which are more powerful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-11 Amichai Painsky , Meir Feder , Naftali Tishby
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