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Consider the chiral non-Hermitian random matrix ensemble with parameters $n$ and $v,$ and let $(\zeta_i)_{1\le i\le n}$ be its $n$ eigenvalues with positive $x$-coordinate. In this paper, we establish deviation probabilities and moderate…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-26 Yutao Ma , Siyu Wang

We prove a moderate deviation principle for the continuous time interpolation of discrete time recursive stochastic processes. The methods of proof are somewhat different from the corresponding large deviation result, and in particular the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-24 Paul Dupuis , Dane Johnson

We establish finite sample bounds for the error of standard and waste-free SMC samplers. Our results cover estimates of both expectations and normalising constants of the target distributions. We consider first an arbitrary sequence of…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-15 Yvann Le Fay , Nicolas Chopin , Matti Vihola

We consider the estimation of the $p$-variate normal mean of $X\sim N_p(\theta,I)$ under the quadratic loss function. We investigate the decision theoretic properties of debiased shrinkage estimator, the estimator which shrinks towards the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-08 Yuzo Maruyama , Akimichi Takemura

The Median-of-Means (MoM) is a robust estimator widely used in machine learning that is known to be (minimax) optimal in scenarios where samples are i.i.d. In more grave scenarios, samples are contaminated by an adversary that can inspect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-10 Xabier de Juan , Santiago Mazuelas

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

We consider a high-dimensional mean estimation problem over a binary hidden Markov model, which illuminates the interplay between memory in data, sample size, dimension, and signal strength in statistical inference. In this model, an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-13 Yihan Zhang , Nir Weinberger

We study the precise large deviation probabilities for the sizes of intermediate level sets in branching Brownian motion (BBM). Our conclusions improve a result of A\"{i}dekon, Hu and Shi in [J. Math. Sci. \textbf{238}(2019)]. Additionally,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-07 Xinxin Chen , Heng Ma

We prove a large deviation result for a random symmetric n x n matrix with independent identically distributed entries to have a few eigenvalues of size n. If the spectrum S survives when the matrix is rescaled by a factor of n, it can only…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-22 Sourav Chatterjee , S. R. S. Varadhan

Most of the modern literature on robust mean estimation focuses on designing estimators which obtain optimal sub-Gaussian concentration bounds under minimal moment assumptions and sometimes also assuming contamination. This work looks at…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-30 Lucas Resende

An aim of this article is to highlight dynamical differences between the greedy, and hence the lazy, $\beta$-shift (transformation) and an intermediate $\beta$-shift (transformation), for a fixed $\beta \in (1, 2)$. Specifically, a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-02-14 Bing Li , Tuomas Sahlsten , Tony Samuel

We develop a probabilistic method for assessing the tail behavior and geometric stability of one-dimensional n i.i.d. samples by tracking how their span contracts when the most extreme points are trimmed. Central to our approach is the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-03 Erwan Dereure , Emmanuel Akame Mfoumou , David Holcman

There is a wide literature on change point tests, but the case of variables with infinite variances is essentially unexplored. In this paper we address this problem by studying the asymptotic behavior of trimmed CUSUM statistics. We show…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-06 István Berkes , Lajos Horváth , Johannes Schauer

Suppose $k$ centers are fit to $m$ points by heuristically minimizing the $k$-means cost; what is the corresponding fit over the source distribution? This question is resolved here for distributions with $p\geq 4$ bounded moments; in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-11-11 Matus Telgarsky , Sanjoy Dasgupta

We consider estimating the shared mean of a sequence of heavy-tailed random variables taking values in a Banach space. In particular, we revisit and extend a simple truncation-based mean estimator first proposed by Catoni and Giulini. While…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Justin Whitehouse , Ben Chugg , Diego Martinez-Taboada , Aaditya Ramdas

We study the problem of high-dimensional robust mean estimation in an online setting. Specifically, we consider a scenario where $n$ sensors are measuring some common, ongoing phenomenon. At each time step $t=1,2,\ldots,T$, the $i^{th}$…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Daniel M. Kane , Ilias Diakonikolas , Hanshen Xiao , Sihan Liu

We show that in a sample of size $n$ from a GEM$(0,\theta)$ random discrete distribution, the gaps $G_{i:n}:= X_{n-i+1:n} - X_{n-i:n}$ between order statistics $X_{1:n} \le \cdots \le X_{n:n}$ of the sample, with the convention $G_{n:n} :=…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-24 Jim Pitman , Yuri Yakubovich

Classification rules can be severely affected by the presence of disturbing observations in the training sample. Looking for an optimal classifier with such data may lead to unnecessarily complex rules. So, simpler effective classification…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-19 Marina Antolín , Eustasio Del Barrio , Jean-Michel Loubes

The purpose of the present paper is to establish moderate deviation principles for a rather general class of random variables fulfilling certain bounds of the cumulants. We apply a celebrated lemma of the theory of large deviations…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-28 Hanna Doering , Peter Eichelsbacher

Stein's method is applied to obtain a general Cramer-type moderate deviation result for dependent random variables whose dependence is defined in terms of a Stein identity. A corollary for zero-bias coupling is deduced. The result is also…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-06 Louis H. Y. Chen , Xiao Fang , Qi-Man Shao
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