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This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Rafael Alcantara , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert F. Lopes

The regression discontinuity (RD) design offers identification of causal effects under weak assumptions, earning it a position as a standard method in modern political science research. But identification does not necessarily imply that…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-14 Drew Stommes , P. M. Aronow , Fredrik Sävje

Regression discontinuity design (RDD) is widely adopted for causal inference under intervention determined by a continuous variable. While one is interested in treatment effect heterogeneity by subgroups in many applications, RDD typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-11 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Takuya Ishihara , Daisuke Kurisu

Quasi-experimental research designs, such as regression discontinuity and interrupted time series, allow for causal inference in the absence of a randomized controlled trial, at the cost of additional assumptions. In this paper, we provide…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-15 Max Hinne , David Leeftink , Marcel A. J. van Gerven , Luca Ambrogioni

The Regression Discontinuity (RD) design is a widely used non-experimental method for causal inference and program evaluation. While its canonical formulation only requires a score and an outcome variable, it is common in empirical work to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-25 Matias D. Cattaneo , Luke Keele , Rocio Titiunik

Causal effect estimation for dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) contributes to sequential decision making. However, censoring and time-dependent confounding under DTRs are challenging as the amount of observational data declines over time due…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-27 Adi Lin , Jie Lu , Junyu Xuan , Fujin Zhu , Guangquan Zhang

Empirical studies using Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often explore heterogeneous treatment effects based on pretreatment covariates, even though no formal statistical methods exist for such analyses. This has led to the widespread…

The boundary discontinuity (BD) design is a non-experimental method for identifying causal effects that exploits a thresholding rule based on a bivariate score and a boundary curve. This widely used method generalizes the univariate…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-16 Matias D. Cattaneo , Rocio Titiunik , Ruiqi Rae Yu

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-08 David Van Dijcke

We study identification and estimation in the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with a multivalued treatment variable. We also allow for the inclusion of covariates. We show that without additional information, treatment effects are not…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-02 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Juan Carlos Escanciano

The Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the causal effect of a treatment when its assignment is defined by a threshold value for a continuous assignment variable. The RDD assumes that subjects…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-27 Federico Ricciardi , Silvia Liverani , Gianluca Baio

This paper studies the case of possibly high-dimensional covariates in the regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis. In particular, we propose estimation and inference methods for the RDD models with covariate selection which perform…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Yoichi Arai , Taisuke Otsu , Myung Hwan Seo

Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs rely on the continuity of potential outcome means at the cutoff, but this assumption often fails when other treatments or policies are implemented at this cutoff. We characterize the bias in sharp and…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Dor Leventer , Daniel Nevo

Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are a popular approach to estimating a treatment effect of cutoff-based interventions. Two current estimation approaches dominate the literature. One fits separate regressions on either side of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-10 Daryl Swartzentruber , Eloise Kaizar

We introduce a framework for estimating causal effects of binary and continuous treatments in high dimensions. We show how posterior distributions of treatment and outcome models can be used together with doubly robust estimators. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-06 Joseph Antonelli , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Francesca Dominici

Motivated by customer loyalty plans and scholarship programs, we study tie-breaker designs which are hybrids of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and regression discontinuity designs (RDDs). We quantify the statistical efficiency of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-03 Art B. Owen , Hal Varian

We study the econometric properties of so-called donut regression discontinuity (RD) designs, a robustness exercise which involves repeating estimation and inference without the data points in some area around the treatment threshold. This…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-29 Cladia Noack , Chistoph Rothe

Explanations of the internal validity of regression discontinuity designs (RDD) generally appeal to the idea that RDDs are ``as good as" random near the treatment cut point. Cattaneo, Frandsen, and Titiunik (2015) are the first to take this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Sophie Litschwartz

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is widely used for program evaluation with observational data. The primary focus of the existing literature has been the estimation of the local average treatment effect at the existing treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Yi Zhang , Eli Ben-Michael , Kosuke Imai

In precision medicine, Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) are treatment protocols that adapt over time in response to a patient's observed characteristics. A DTR is a set of decision functions that takes an individual patient's information as…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-17 Cong Jiang , Michael Wallace , Mary Thompson